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Original headline: MasTec ( MTZ ) Offers Exposure to Grid Infrastructure and Data Center Growth
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Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi and EMJ Capital's Eric Jackson examine the gap between Wall Street's sell-off in AI infrastructure stocks, such as CoreWeave and Nebius, and the data center construction underway on the ground. Using Hut 8's 649-acre Riverbend data center in Louisiana as an example, Jackson describes a busy construction site with large transformers, substations, and local and political support. He notes Hut 8 raised non-recourse debt rather than a $6 billion stock offering that dilutes shareholders, unlike some other infrastructure players. Jackson says the real market concern centers on larger players such as Oracle and CoreWeave, while investors do not question Google, Meta or Amazon.
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The Telegraph reports that Microsoft has pulled out of a planned data center deal with the British neocloud Nscale at Loughton, Essex, without giving a specific reason. The newspaper said the site has faced a series of delays, and authorities have told Nscale they don't expect a power supply there until the 2030s. Nscale's flagship site in Norway is also six months behind schedule, with only 6.4 megawatts of its intended 30-megawatt data center running. According to an IPO filing, Microsoft and Anthropic account for around 85% of Nscale's contracts, and Microsoft's withdrawal comes as Nscale prepares an IPO seeking up to $3 billion. Nscale says it remains committed to the Loughton project and its relationship with Microsoft is strong, and that the London-wide grid issue has no impact on its other contracts.
- Nvidia vs. AMD: Which Business Is More Exposed to a Data-Center Slowdown?
Nvidia's data-center sales were $89 billion of $96.221 billion total revenue for the quarter ended July 26, about 92.5% of sales, while AMD's data-center category of $6.7 billion made up about 58.1% of $11.536 billion and includes EPYC server processors. In a test cutting data-center revenue by 10% with everything else unchanged, Nvidia's total revenue falls about 9.25% versus 5.8% for AMD. AMD's other markets are not guaranteed offsets, since its gaming revenue fell 31% year over year in the June quarter even as client and embedded revenue rose 23% and 19%. The article concludes AMD offers less direct sensitivity to a uniform data-center decline today, but this advantage would weaken if non-data-center demand also deteriorated.
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Concerns about an AI bubble are growing, and TS Lombard's Dario Perkins warns that investors may be overlooking other risks. Debt among smaller cloud providers, model developers and suppliers could reach $2 trillion by the end of 2027. Perkins does not see this as a systemic risk, but warns that earnings disappointments and canceled orders could ripple through the ecosystem, and that a chip glut could follow over-ordering. Much of the industry's revenue growth still comes from spending within the AI ecosystem rather than from businesses and consumers outside it. He also flags political backlash, noting that ordinary people dislike AI and nearby datacenters, and warns that one high-profile accident could turn AI toxic.
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The yen rose 0.2% to 158.15 per dollar in Asian trading after a 20-year Japanese government bond auction drew bids of 5.84 times the amount sold, well above the 4.01 times at the previous auction, and the yield fell 6 basis points to 3.71%. A State Street strategist said the record demand suggests sidelined cash is returning and that JGBs are becoming a relative haven from political and fiscal volatility in Europe, particularly France. Anti-government protests in France prompted curfews in several cities, while Italy said it would send 500 troops after two days of unrest, and the euro rallied 0.2% to $1.1234. Elsewhere, bitcoin slipped 0.3% to $81,674.25 and ether edged down 0.2% to $2,393.21.
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Vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000 in the three months to September, the biggest drop since the three months to March and the lowest since July to September 2014 outside the pandemic, while unemployment dipped in the three months to August. Payroll numbers were down 66,000 over the year to September. The ONS said the fall was mainly among smaller firms struggling with higher labour costs, following rises in employer national insurance, the minimum wage and workers' rights. A CBI survey found labour costs and regulations were making it harder to create jobs, and firms urged the Chancellor not to add to their burden in the October 28 Budget. ICAEW's Suren Thiru said the labour market is 'running on idle' and unemployment could climb above 5 per cent, while Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith blamed Labour's 'Jobs Tax' and red tape.
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U.S. tech stocks rebounded as the Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1% on Monday, with Nvidia up 1.4% and Tesla up 3.8%. In Asia, however, tech shares fell on Tuesday, with South Korea's Kospi down over 4% and Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.6%. Nvidia also unveiled plans to back four German AI startups as part of its nearly $10 billion European investment commitment. Jenny Lee of Granite Asia said Asian companies are reaching IPOs much sooner, often at four to five years old, while Jio Platforms' Indian IPO saw its anchor investor quota oversubscribed more than 30 times, aiming to raise up to 302 billion rupees ($3.2 billion). In Singapore, several agricultural stocks fell after Senior Minister K Shanmugam warned that companies would not escape responsibility for possible roles in the haze, noting seven firms had been questioned by the Singapore Exchange.
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NiSource has nearly doubled shareholders' money over the past five years, delivering a 97.6% total return, which raises the question of whether dividends can justify the current share price. The article highlights a new 20-year energy agreement with Microsoft, including customer-funded grid upgrades and long-term electric service for data centers, which may affect future capital needs and cash-flow visibility. Using a Dividend Discount Model with inputs of about $1.35 dividend per share, roughly 9.07% return on equity, a payout ratio slightly above 61%, and implied dividend growth of about 3.5%, the estimated intrinsic value sits meaningfully below the current share price of $41.95. The model still does not bridge that gap, suggesting income investors are paying a premium for a relatively steady payout with modest assumed growth.
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