The 24/7 Wall St. model sets a 12-month price target of $646.49 for Microsoft, implying 20.82% upside from the latest close of $535.07, and rates the stock a buy. The thesis rests on a $678B commercial backlog, Azure topping $100B in annual revenue for the first time, and Copilot moving toward a seat-plus-usage model. Shares have risen 37.11% since July 13, and the fiscal Q4 report showed revenue of $90.01B, non-GAAP EPS of $4.74 and Azure growth of 43%. The bull case reaches $751.56 on demand that exceeds supply and more than 30 million paid Copilot seats, while the bear case of $546.65 centers on capex rising 79.62% to $115.95B and free cash flow falling 6.46%. The article says the thesis holds while Azure grows above 40%, but would weaken if capex rises alongside flat backlog growth outside OpenAI.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Related tickers and likely impact
MSFT
▲ Likely positiveMicrosoft
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Systems Software |
| Market cap | $4.0T |
| Close on 10/14/2026 | 533.69 |
| Change that session | -1.80% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Microsoft pulls out of Nscale U . K . data - center deal over power - supply issues
Microsoft has withdrawn from a deal to lease capacity at Nscale's 50-megawatt Loughton data center in the U.K. because of power-supply issues, a setback as Nscale prepares to go public. The facility was to host about 23,000 Nvidia GB300 chips for Microsoft Azure and was expected to go live by the end of this year, but that timeline no longer holds due to challenges with the U.K. power grid. Microsoft says it remains committed to Nscale and that the decision relates to a single site, while Nscale says it is exploring alternative power sources and its relationship with Microsoft remains strong. The article notes that clients can pull out of deals when projects are delayed, threatening revenue. Nscale recently filed for a U.S. IPO and last month raised $3.36 billion through convertible loan notes in a pre-IPO round.
- Neoclouds : Goldman Sachs Upgrades CoreWeave . Microsoft Shelves Nscale Project .
- Microsoft drops Nscale’s Loughton AI data center over interconnection delay
- Hedge Fund Stock Pickers Lost 2 . 9 % in a Week as AI Trades Unwound , Goldman Sachs Data Showed :
Global fundamental long-short hedge funds lost money every day in the week to Oct. 15, ending down 2.9%, though they remain up 14.3% year to date, according to Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data. Asia-focused stock pickers were hit hardest, down 6.8% in the first half of October and erasing more than half of their gains since a late-June peak. Goldman said the selling was mainly long liquidation rather than new shorts, with hedge funds net selling its Global AI Basket for six straight sessions by Friday, reversing net buying since early last year. South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 7% on Oct. 15 and Taiwanese stocks dropped more than 3%. The strategy's one-day loss exceeded 80 basis points three times in 2026 (Feb. 4, July 28 and Oct. 15), after never doing so from Covid through the end of 2025, with a hotter-than-expected US inflation reading as the trigger.
- Microsoft backs out of Nscale data center deal: What to know
Microsoft has withdrawn from a UK data center deal with neocloud startup Nscale, which had been aiming for a $3 billion IPO as early as late October. The 8:30 hosts Pras Subramanian, Jake Conley and Julie Hyman discuss Microsoft's reasons for pulling out.
- Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump As AI Revenue Views Lift
Fresh valuation work lifts Microsoft's fair value from about US$578.82 to about US$599.24, with recent analyst price targets mostly between US$570 and US$725. Bullish firms cite Azure, M365 and Copilot as key AI revenue drivers, while some, such as Rothschild & Co Redburn, take a more measured view on higher multiples and prior rallies. Microsoft unveiled its Azure Maia 300 AI chip, which it says offers about 40% greater AI token processing efficiency per megawatt than leading GPU systems, and reported more than US$130b in new data center leases in the most recent quarter. The US Department of Labor suspended Microsoft from the PERM green card program, and regulators in the UK, Australia and Italy are increasing scrutiny of Microsoft 365 and Copilot.
Related markets
Latest news
- CoreWeave Dropped 20% Last Week. Is It Time to Panic or Buy?
CoreWeave shares fell more than 20% as of Oct. 16, driven mainly by concerns over debt and spending. The company carries about $35 billion in total debt against $5.5 billion in cash, with net interest payments reaching $640 million in the second quarter alone, unsecured bond yields approaching 15%, and an S&P rating of B+. Capital expenditure was just over $16 billion in the first half of 2026 and could reach $39 billion for the year, roughly triple its $12.4 to $13.2 billion revenue guidance. States are also weighing restrictions on data centers. On the positive side, second-quarter revenue rose 112% year over year and the backlog exceeded $104 billion. The author has reservations and sees the drop as an opportunity only for the most risk-tolerant investors, who might build a position slowly, while the company needs to prove it can convert its backlog efficiently and manage debt.
- Apple’s iPhone Duo Sold Out In Minutes. The Last Time Apple Reinvented The Phone, One Apple Supplier’s Stock Soared About 1,200% In A Decade
Apple's first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, sold out within minutes of its worldwide preorders opening on Oct. 16, but buyers who ordered more than an hour later face a delay of nearly three months, according to Korea JoongAng Daily, which puts the U.S. starting price at $1,999. One unnamed supply-chain source said Foxconn's final-assembly yield was just above 60% heading into late September, against the 90%-plus rate Apple typically expects, and the hinge, which holds more than 100 parts, is cited as a constraint. Analyst Jeff Pu cut his 2026 shipment estimate from 7 million to 6 million, while reported forecasts range from about 6 million to 10 million units. The article also recalls that Skyworks Solutions, identified as the power-amplifier supplier of the original iPhone, rose about 1,200% over a decade, though those figures cover price only.
- Why Sandisk Stock Shot Higher Today
Sandisk shares jumped as much as 8.3% and were still up 7.9% at 11:24 a.m. ET, helped by a tech rebound and positive news in high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Nvidia has developed NVHBM, a custom HBM die with 15% lower power consumption and 30% higher bandwidth that links NVLink and HBM chips. A Seoul Economic Daily report says Nvidia asked Samsung Electronics to use TSMC's 3-nanometer process to make NVHBM dies, the first such collaboration between the two. Nvidia has also approached Micron and SK Hynix to standardize the process, which could free compute-die space for up to 30% additional compute. The article argues this suggests AI adoption still has room to grow, which would also benefit memory suppliers, and notes Sandisk trades at 19 times earnings and 6 times forward earnings.
- JPMorgan Picks Ethereum for JPM Coin, Citing the Network’s Liquidity and Client Use
JPMorgan is launching JPM Coin, its dollar deposit token, on Ethereum and will offer it to institutional clients there, as announced Monday and reported by Bloomberg. Emma Landriault, global head of Kinexys Labs, said Ethereum's liquidity and the fact that the bank's clients already use it drove the choice. The token targets large crypto firms that pay onchain and financial institutions active in tokenized assets, which can use it as onchain cash to settle trades or as collateral. JPM Coin debuted last year on Base, and it lets clients move dollars in seconds at any hour, whereas a transfer can otherwise take several days. JPMorgan's private Kinexys network already handles daily volume above $7 billion, the bank's payments arm handles around $12 trillion in daily payments, and Open Standard launched its OUSD stablecoin on Ethereum, Solana, Base and Tempo last month.
- Prediction : Amazon Next Chapter Could Be Its Most Important One Yet
24/7 Wall St. sets a price target of $332.67 for Amazon (AMZN), 30.4% above the current $255.20, and rates the stock a buy with 70% confidence. The thesis rests on AWS, which grew 37% last quarter, its fastest pace in 18 quarters, while Amazon plans to spend about $200B in 2026 on AI infrastructure, chips, robotics and satellites. The article flags risks: trailing free cash flow turned negative at about -$7.6B after second-quarter capex rose 68.44%, and long-term debt climbed to $119.1B from $65.6B. It compares Amazon's valuation with Microsoft and Alphabet, and says the author would stay constructive if AWS growth stays above 30% and free cash flow turns positive in 2027.
- Explainer - What behind Egypt move towards possible military involvement in Saudi - Yemen conflict ?
Egypt's parliament is expected to vote next week on authorising its armed forces to help defend Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks from Yemen, if Riyadh requests support. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi made the request in a Saturday speech, a clear escalation from Cairo's measured tone since the Iran war began, though Egypt has not publicly committed to a direct combat role. Egypt relies heavily on Gulf states for remittances, aid and deposits, including a $5.3 billion Saudi deposit at Egypt's central bank due this month. Analysts say security concerns, including a July drone strike on two gas vessels at Damietta and shared interest in Red Sea shipping, are pushing Cairo toward a more active stance. Egypt receives about $1.3 billion a year in US military aid and previously sent air and naval forces to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen in 2015.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.