The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday retail sales will reach $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% from 2025, as consumers keep prioritizing spending on loved ones despite inflation, rising gas prices and debt. NRF says spending will diverge by income: lower-income households are expected to pull back, especially on gifts such as electronics, while higher-income families keep shopping in what it calls a “K-shaped economy.” Other forecasts are also upbeat, with Bain projecting 4.5% growth and Mastercard 5.5%, though PwC expects a 2% decline. Retailers are expected to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, similar to last year’s 356,000.
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Original headline: NRF Predicts 4 . 2 % Holiday Sales Growth Despite Inflation and Rising Gas Prices
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Related news
- NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient
The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts holiday sales in November and December will grow 4.2% over 2025 to a total of $1.013 trillion, as consumers still prioritize the season despite budget concerns. Last year's holiday sales rose 3.1% over 2024 to $972 billion. NRF expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, similar to an estimated 356,000 last year, but hiring remains measured due to high gas prices, persistent inflation, higher interest rates and elevated consumer debt. The forecast excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
- US holiday sales growth to speed up as shoppers stay resilient , NRF forecasts
- Retail trade group forecasts healthy holiday sales , some from inflation
- Retail trade group forecasts healthy holiday sales , some from inflation
- Retail trade group forecasts healthy holiday sales , some from inflation
- US retail trade group forecasts healthy holiday sales , in part due to inflation
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