The opinion piece argues that prediction markets let ordinary people buy and sell contracts on whether future events will happen, with prices reflecting the market's implied probability. The author cites a 2026 Federal Reserve report finding that prediction market forecasts had 22% less error than a typical Bloomberg forecast, outperforming a consensus of professional economists. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether states can regulate sports-related prediction markets. The author contends these exchanges already fall under federal oversight, so a patchwork of state laws would create chaos, and policymakers should instead enforce fraud and manipulation rules and make the existing federal framework effective.
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