Using data from NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran, the S&P 500 gained about 10.6% a year with dividends reinvested from 1957 through 2025, yet only four of those 69 years (1968, 1993, 2004 and 2016) returned between 8% and 12%. Fifteen years lost money and 25 gained more than 20%; the best year was 1958 (about 44%) and the worst was 2008 (a fall of about 37%). The 10% average appeared more often over longer periods: 13 of 60 rolling 10-year periods, 27 of 50 20-year periods and 30 of 40 30-year periods landed in the 8–12% range, and every 30-year period gained between about 9.6% and 13.6% a year. As of writing, the index was up about 14% for 2026. The author considers 10% a sensible planning figure for buy-and-hold investors over 20 to 30 years, but not one to rely on in any single year.
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