News · CNBC

U.S. Treasury dismisses IMF debt warning and 'messy' forecasting

David Zervos, newly appointed counselor to the Treasury Secretary, said the IMF should check its own forecasting record before criticizing U.S. fiscal policy. He was responding to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who warned that strong U.S. growth alone would not put federal debt on a sustainable path. Zervos cited past misses, including a 2008 world growth forecast of 3% followed by a global contraction a year later, and Argentina's $57 billion bailout before it was basically in default again by 2020. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. could 'grow our way out' of its rising debt-to-GDP ratio after government debt surpassed $40 trillion. Many economists warn that rising interest payments and deficits could trigger a debt spiral, though they are divided on whether a true fiscal crisis is possible.

Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.

Read the original on CNBC ↗

Related news

  • Treasury dismisses IMF debt alarm as US yields hold above 5 %mpamag.com·▲ DXY▼ SPY
  • AI Debt Warning Signs Are Piling Up : Why Bond Markets Are Getting Nervous About AI Infrastructure Spending

    The cost to insure CoreWeave debt against default, measured by five-year CDS, hit a record of about 1,195 basis points, meaning $119,500 a year to insure $1 million of debt, while its October 2031 bond yield reached 16% and some bonds traded near 80% of face value. Oracle's five-year CDS neared 300 basis points, also a record, after S&P Global cut its rating to just one notch above junk. Bonds tied to Meta's Hyperion data-center project fell to around 91 cents on the dollar, and SoftBank's five-year CDS rose 24 basis points to 424. The pressure reflects a harsher macro backdrop, with oil prices climbing, inflation fears rising, and the 10-year Treasury yielding roughly 5%, while AI projects still face uncertainty over whether their revenue will cover heavy spending.

    fool.com·▼ NVDA▼ QQQ▼ AMZN▼ GOOGL
  • AI Debt Warning Signs Are Piling Up: Why Bond Markets Are Getting Nervous About AI Infrastructure Spending

    AI spending is running well ahead of revenue, so more companies are borrowing to build data centers and buy chips, and bond investors are growing nervous about whether and when they will see a return. CoreWeave's five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread, the cost of insuring its debt against default, hit a record of about 1,195 basis points, meaning $119,500 a year to insure $1 million of debt, and some of its bonds traded near 80% of face value with the October 2031 bond yielding 16%. Oracle's five-year CDS neared 300 basis points, a company record, after S&P Global cut its rating to one notch above junk. Bonds tied to Meta's Hyperion data-center project fell to around 91 cents on the dollar, and SoftBank's five-year CDS rose 24 basis points to 424. The article adds that oil-driven inflation has pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to roughly 5%, making borrowing costlier, while it remains unclear whether these projects will generate enough revenue to cover their costs.

    Yahoo Finance·▼ NVDA
  • Roundup : IMF , World Bank warn of mounting debt , divergent AI boom at Bangkok annual meetings

    Speaking at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, officials warned that rising sovereign debt, geopolitical conflict and technological disruption risk fragmenting the world economy, even as global growth holds at 3.1 percent, unchanged from the October 2025 projection. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described a divergence between tech-led upgrades in the US, China, India and parts of Asia and sharp downgrades for economies hit by conflict and persistent inflation, urging central banks to stay restrictive and finance ministers to consolidate budgets. World Bank Group President Ajay Banga warned that 1.2 billion young people will reach working age over the coming decade, against projections of only 420 million new jobs. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul urged members to resist insular trade policies and to use regional groupings such as ASEAN to maintain cross-border economic ties.

    bignewsnetwork.com·
  • Europe must boost growth or borrow less to keep debt sustainable , IMF says

    The IMF says European economies must grow faster or borrow less to keep debt on a sustainable path, warning that doing nothing is not an option. It forecasts euro zone growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, with inflation at 3.1% in 2026, 2.8% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. About three-quarters of European countries need structural reforms plus deficit-reducing consolidation of around 3.5% of GDP on average, and about one-quarter would need more than 5% of GDP. European Commission projections show the EU's debt-to-GDP ratio rising from 82.8% at end-2025 to 85.3% by end-2027, while weak productivity is identified as the biggest obstacle to faster growth.

    aol.com·
  • Breaking the Adjustment Cycle in Africa : Senegal under IMF Debt Restructuring and Independent Parliamentary Oversight ( Part II )pambazuka.org·

Related markets

US stocks →

Latest news

  • Is Nvidia Stock Really Trading for Just 8 Times 2030 Earnings?

    Nvidia is the market's most valuable company, with a market cap above $5 trillion. It trades at 27 times adjusted trailing earnings, but only about 8 times analysts' estimate for fiscal 2030 earnings, a figure the author stresses is a moving target. Revenue growth accelerated from 56% in Q2 FY 2026 to 106% in Q2 FY 2027, though guidance points to a slight slowdown in the current quarter. The stock trades at 13 times next year's earnings, and the board recently authorized a record $150 billion in share repurchases. The author also acknowledges risks such as slower growth or contracting net margins.

    Yahoo Finance·• NVDANvidiavaluationearnings
  • US Orders Civilian Agencies to Rip DeepSeek Out of Government Systems

    The U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Monday ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and third-party services built on the model from their IT systems, and to stop buying them. The notice warns that using DeepSeek may transfer sensitive data to China and could produce intelligence on U.S. persons and agencies. The Commerce Department, the Navy, and the states of New York, Tennessee and Virginia had already restricted DeepSeek. The FCC votes on October 29 on barring Chinese labs from testing electronics for U.S. use.

    Decrypt·DeepSeekChinaartificial intelligence
  • Tesla-SpaceX merger is 'not so easy': Analyst

    Speculation about a possible merger between SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) has grown on Wall Street in recent weeks. RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan says it would not be simple: SpaceX would have to acquire Tesla, likely in an all-stock deal, and would need to pay a strong premium. He sets a $480 price target for Tesla, while the shares trade near $367. The longer-term focus may be Terafab, Elon Musk's chip initiative aimed at cutting production costs by up to 90% and bypassing Nvidia and TSMC. Musk currently controls 85% of SpaceX's voting rights and 20% of Tesla's.

    Yahoo Finance·• TSLATSLASpaceXmergers and acquisitions
  • Is Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Priced Right?

    Chip stocks fell sharply last week, and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped nearly 2% as investors worried that heavily indebted AI companies would face higher borrowing costs after bond yields jumped for CoreWeave, a cloud company Nvidia backs. CoreWeave shares had fallen more than 15% the day before. Nvidia's own numbers show no sign of that stress: it sold $96.2 billion of chips and systems in the quarter ended July, up 106% from a year earlier, mostly from data center sales. Its net profit margin was 63.66% over the past 12 months, and management expects $108.0 billion in revenue next quarter, assuming no data center sales to China. The key risk is whether customers can keep paying for chips if interest rates stay high, and the planned partnerships to bring over $500 billion of outside capital into AI infrastructure have not yet become definitive agreements.

    Yahoo Finance·NvidiaCoreWeavebonds
  • Networking Stocks Rally as Tech Rebound Lifts AI Gear Makers: Ciena and Arista Climb 4%, but Cisco Barely Moves

    Networking stocks rallied with the tech rebound as suppliers of AI data center gear drew buying: Ciena (CIEN) rose 4% to $347.48 and Arista Networks (ANET) climbed 4% to $183.32, well ahead of the iShares U.S. Technology ETF (IYW) at 1.29% and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) at 1.31%, while Cisco (CSCO) was practically unchanged at $107.06. Ciena's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted EPS was $2.11 against a $1.73 consensus, with revenue up 37% year over year to $1.67 billion, and it raised fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $6.42 billion. Its backlog reached $8.5 billion, but supply remains the limit, and management does not expect the market to return to balance before 2028. Two customers made up 41.7% of Q3 revenue, so Ciena's growth is concentrated. The next test is whether Ciena can hit its fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $1.75 billion under tight component supply.

    Yahoo Finance·▲ QQQ▲ NVDAQQQCienadata centers
  • Gartner Predicts “80% of Neoclouds” Out of Business by 2030: Here’s Who Wins

    Gartner forecast on October 14 that more than 80% of neoclouds will stop operating independently by 2030, and CoreWeave (CRWV) fell 25% last week. The article argues that hyperscalers funding AI capacity from their own cash flow, led by Amazon and Alphabet, are likely winners as credit tightens for indebted neoclouds. Amazon generated $140 billion of operating cash flow in fiscal 2025, more than covering $132 billion of capex, while CoreWeave's total debt reached $29.8 billion. Since their July 29 closing low, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are up 15.6%, compared with 1.6% for IREN, CoreWeave and Nebius. Hyperscaler earnings in the coming weeks will need to show whether sold-out capacity is turning into results.

    Yahoo Finance·CoreWeavecloud computingcredit

All news →

Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo

Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.