Oracle (ORCL) stock has dipped 53% over the past year as the company has borrowed heavily, with debt of about $169 billion versus $37 billion in cash, to build data center capacity for its contract backlog. Remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, while fiscal Q1 revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue jumped 121% to $7.4 billion. The article notes that customer prepayments and bring-your-own-hardware arrangements ease the balance-sheet burden, and analysts expect earnings growth to step up in fiscal 2029 after a 7% increase this year. The article argues that if EPS reaches $15.79 in fiscal 2029 and the stock trades at 19 times earnings, the price could reach $300, 129% above its current level.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
Oraclecloud computingdata centersvaluation
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- Oracle’s Growth to Valuation Mismatch is Less and Less Compelling
Oracle's cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations) reached $664 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.39 billion, yet free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion last quarter and negative $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026. Management expects $90 billion to $95 billion in capex this year, interest expense rose 55% to $1.4 billion, and the company plans to raise about $40 billion more through debt and equity after a $20 billion equity sale. The CFO declined to give a timeline for positive free cash flow. Shares trade at $131.14, about 16x the $8.10 non-GAAP EPS guidance, but are down 31.85% year to date while the S&P 500 is up 12.78%, and the article argues the valuation hinges on whether cash flow catches up with the backlog.
- Oracle's Cloud Backlog Just Hit $664 Billion. Here's What a $1,000 Investment Could Be Worth If It Converts to Revenue on Schedule.
The article estimates a $1,000 investment in Oracle could grow to roughly $2,430 by 2029, if the company converts its cloud backlog on schedule, meets the $15.80 average EPS estimate for fiscal 2029, and keeps a 20 P/E multiple. Remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion as of Aug. 31, up $209 billion from a year earlier, and management expects about half to convert to revenue within 36 months. Cloud infrastructure revenue hit $7.4 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, up 121%, while GPU utilization reached 97.9%. However, free cash flow was negative $5 billion in the latest quarter due to heavy capital spending, and delays in bringing data-center capacity online could slow backlog conversion. The article's scenario puts the shares at $316 in three years, compared with a $130 close on Oct. 14.
- Oracle Is Down More Than a Third in 2026 Even as TD Cowen Flags Possible Nvidia Support. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go by 2031
Oracle closed at $129.13 on October 21, down 34% in 2026 even after cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% last quarter. TD Cowen analyst Michael Elias wrote on October 20 that his checks suggest Nvidia may be providing credit support for some Oracle data center leases, either by guaranteeing lease payments or by leasing facilities and subleasing them to Oracle; neither company has confirmed it. First-quarter free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion despite record operating cash flow of $23.1 billion, and net debt stands at $132.1 billion. The company has also used prepayments and supplier financing to reduce the cash it spends on capacity. The Wall Street Journal reported that banks disclosing California filings held liens covering 87 million Oracle shares pledged by co-founder Larry Ellison for personal loans, up from about 30 million a year earlier, and Oracle says none of the pledged stock sits in margin accounts.
- Oracle vs. Microsoft: Which Is the Better AI Cloud Stock to Own for the Next 5 Years?
The article compares Oracle and Microsoft as AI infrastructure spenders and judges which stock is the better bet over five years. Oracle's sales grew to $67.4 billion in fiscal 2026, with its OCI unit up 121% to $7.4 billion, but its free cash flow turned negative with a $5.4 billion loss last quarter and it carries $125 billion in long-term debt. Microsoft grows more slowly but stayed free cash flow positive, with a nearly $20 billion surplus last quarter and about $40.3 billion in debt. The author prefers Microsoft for its greater financial flexibility to absorb data center delays, such as a potential delay at Oracle's Project Jupiter in New Mexico, though Oracle has more upside if everything goes well.
- Where Will Oracle Stock Be in 2029? | The Motley Fool
Oracle's stock has fallen 53% over the past year, despite expectations that it would benefit from the AI infrastructure boom, as investors worry about debt of just over $169 billion against a $37 billion cash pile used to fund data center expansion. Its remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, and fiscal Q1 revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion, led by a 121% jump in cloud infrastructure revenue to $7.4 billion. Oracle is asking customers to prepay or bring their own hardware, which the article says should ease pressure on free cash flow and debt. Analysts expect earnings growth to step up sharply in fiscal 2029, after a 7% increase in the current year. The article argues that if EPS reaches $15.79 and the stock trades at 19 times earnings, the share price could hit $300, 129% above its current level.
- Oracle (ORCL): Can Rival Clouds Become Its Best Database Sales Channel?
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) could sell more database services even when customers keep applications on rival clouds such as AWS, easing a migration barrier for enterprise AI projects. Multicloud database revenue rose 353% and customers grew 180% in fiscal 2027's first quarter. The stock trades at 18x forward P/E versus 23x trailing, and management's $8.10 EPS guidance implies about 19% growth over $6.83 excluding prior-year investment gains. Risks include a 3% software revenue decline, negative $5.4 billion free cash flow in the first quarter, $125.3 billion of notes payable against $37.1 billion of cash and securities, and a $20 billion stock issuance that dilutes shareholders. The article concludes the valuation looks reasonable only if database growth produces profitable cash returns.
Related markets
Latest news
- Bank Profits Surge
The 9-month 2026 results show many banks continued to grow profits, with some posting record quarterly earnings. VPBank's pre-tax profit reached nearly VND 30,000 billion, up nearly 47%, equal to its full-year 2025 result and about 72.4% of its 2026 plan; Q3 pre-tax profit topped VND 11,000 billion. Techcombank posted VND 28,900 billion (up 23.7%), while LPBank reported VND 10,421 billion (up nearly 9%). SSI forecasts pre-tax profit of its monitored banks to rise 19.5% in 2026 before slowing to 15.4% in 2027, pressured by narrowing net interest margins and rising credit risk provisions. It also expects system-wide credit growth of 16-17% in 2027 and 17.9% for the monitored banks.
- World's Largest Gold Fund Dumps Over 10 Tonnes of Gold as Prices Slide
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold fund, continued net selling of nearly 12 tonnes of gold in the 22/10 session, bringing total sales over 2 sessions to nearly 15 tonnes and cutting its holdings to about 1,046 tonnes. Spot gold fell more than 2.8% to around USD 4,025 per ounce at the close of 22/10, and briefly dipped below USD 4,000 per ounce in the morning session of 23/10. Tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher, raising concerns about inflation and further Fed tightening, and gold has still not attracted sustained safe-haven demand even as US Treasury yields fell. US September CPI rose 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, while PPI rose 1.3% and 6.3%. Markets price about an 84% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its 27-28/10 meeting and a 16% chance of a 25 basis-point increase; September PCE data due on 29/10 is the next key factor to watch.
- Gold Prices Continue to Fall
On the morning of 23/10, domestic gold prices kept falling, with SJC bar prices varying by seller and the premium over world gold widening. Công ty TNHH Vàng bạc đá quý Sài Gòn listed SJC bars at VND 139-142 million per tael (buy-sell), down VND 300,000; Phú Quý was at VND 138-141.8 million, down VND 500,000; and Mi Hồng at VND 140-141.5 million, down VND 800,000. Gold rings also fell by varying amounts, with DOJI at VND 138-142 million and Phú Quý at VND 138-141 million per tael. World gold dropped USD 129 to around USD 3,992 per ounce, equal to about VND 125.3 million per tael, leaving SJC bars about VND 16.7 million per tael above the world price. The State Bank's central rate was set at 25,627 VND/USD, down 5 dong, while Vietcombank quoted 25,660-26,040 VND/USD (buy-sell).
- Company Linked to Billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong Announces Major Good News
VEFAC (ticker VEF), a Vingroup subsidiary, posted Q3 net revenue of nearly VND 77 billion, up 67% year on year, but a gross loss of about VND 27 billion as cost of sales from its exhibition business exceeded revenue. Q3 profit rose mainly thanks to a gross gain of about VND 65 billion from transferring some schools in a project to a partner, while financial income reached over VND 388 billion, mostly from loan and investment income. For the first nine months of 2026, after-tax profit was nearly VND 865 billion, down about 94% from VND 15,418 billion in the same period of 2025, as the prior year included large gains from transferring part of the Vinhomes Global Gate project. As of 30/9/2026, total assets stood at over VND 31,905 billion, up 36% from the start of the year, while total liabilities exceeded VND 24,364 billion, with short-term customer advances rising from VND 411 billion to over VND 8,373 billion.
- Lotte and Phat Dat Officially Break Ground on VND 60,000 Billion Mega Project in Thu Thiem 'Golden Land'
A joint venture between Lotte Group (South Korea) and Phát Đạt (HoSE: PDR) officially broke ground on 23/10 on Lotte Eco Smart City Thu Thiem in the Thu Thiem New Urban Area, HCMC, with total investment of about VND 60,000 billion. The project covers nearly 7.5 ha and will combine Grade A offices, retail, services, accommodation and housing, adjoining the central plaza and central lake of Thu Thiem. Phát Đạt holds 35% of Lotte Properties HCMC, the project developer, and will develop the housing blocks along with two towers (2-1 and 2-3) with about 219,722 m2 of floor area, while Lotte handles block 2-5. Lotte Properties HCMC paid VND 17,569 billion in land-use fees on 31/7/2026, and Phát Đạt completed its VND 7,666 billion payment to take its 35% stake. MB is funding all of Phát Đạt's capital contribution, while VietinBank and BIDV also support the project.
- International Business : Global stocks nosedive as Meta dents AI optimism
Global stocks retreated as tech earnings failed to ease concerns about the AI outlook, with MSCI's All-World index set for its largest daily fall in two weeks, down 0.4 per cent. Meta beat third-quarter revenue expectations, but its plan to issue non-voting stock revived worries about its mounting capital commitments, and a New Mexico judge ordered it to pay a $25 billion penalty in a data privacy case. Brent crude rose nearly 3% to $112 a barrel, near a five-month high, after more Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia raised supply risks. Investors moved into government bonds, pushing the US 10-year yield down to 5.05%, below France's for the first time in 13 years, while French yields have climbed above 5% amid concerns over social unrest and debt. The France-Germany 10-year spread reached 177.7 basis points, its widest since 2011, while gold fell 1.8% to $4,070 an ounce.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.