Oracle's stock has fallen 53% over the past year, despite expectations that it would benefit from the AI infrastructure boom, as investors worry about debt of just over $169 billion against a $37 billion cash pile used to fund data center expansion. Its remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, and fiscal Q1 revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion, led by a 121% jump in cloud infrastructure revenue to $7.4 billion. Oracle is asking customers to prepay or bring their own hardware, which the article says should ease pressure on free cash flow and debt. Analysts expect earnings growth to step up sharply in fiscal 2029, after a 7% increase in the current year. The article argues that if EPS reaches $15.79 and the stock trades at 19 times earnings, the share price could hit $300, 129% above its current level.
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Original headline: Where Will Oracle Stock Be in 2029 ? | The Motley Fool
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- Where Will Oracle Stock Be in 2029?
Oracle (ORCL) stock has dipped 53% over the past year as the company has borrowed heavily, with debt of about $169 billion versus $37 billion in cash, to build data center capacity for its contract backlog. Remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, while fiscal Q1 revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue jumped 121% to $7.4 billion. The article notes that customer prepayments and bring-your-own-hardware arrangements ease the balance-sheet burden, and analysts expect earnings growth to step up in fiscal 2029 after a 7% increase this year. The article argues that if EPS reaches $15.79 in fiscal 2029 and the stock trades at 19 times earnings, the price could reach $300, 129% above its current level.
- Oracle’s Growth to Valuation Mismatch is Less and Less Compelling
Oracle's cloud backlog (remaining performance obligations) reached $664 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.39 billion, yet free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion last quarter and negative $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026. Management expects $90 billion to $95 billion in capex this year, interest expense rose 55% to $1.4 billion, and the company plans to raise about $40 billion more through debt and equity after a $20 billion equity sale. The CFO declined to give a timeline for positive free cash flow. Shares trade at $131.14, about 16x the $8.10 non-GAAP EPS guidance, but are down 31.85% year to date while the S&P 500 is up 12.78%, and the article argues the valuation hinges on whether cash flow catches up with the backlog.
- Oracle (ORCL): Can Rival Clouds Become Its Best Database Sales Channel?
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) could sell more database services even when customers keep applications on rival clouds such as AWS, easing a migration barrier for enterprise AI projects. Multicloud database revenue rose 353% and customers grew 180% in fiscal 2027's first quarter. The stock trades at 18x forward P/E versus 23x trailing, and management's $8.10 EPS guidance implies about 19% growth over $6.83 excluding prior-year investment gains. Risks include a 3% software revenue decline, negative $5.4 billion free cash flow in the first quarter, $125.3 billion of notes payable against $37.1 billion of cash and securities, and a $20 billion stock issuance that dilutes shareholders. The article concludes the valuation looks reasonable only if database growth produces profitable cash returns.
- Prediction: Oracle’s Next Chapter Could Be Huge for Shareholders
24/7 Wall St. sets a 12-month price target of $200.70 for Oracle, about 50.6% above the $133.28 midday price, with a buy rating. The stock is down 30.71% year to date and well below its 52-week high of $318.28, even as cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubled last quarter. Oracle's Q1 capex reached $28.5 billion, pushing free cash flow to -$5.40 billion, with full-year capex guided at $90 billion to $95 billion and plans to raise about $40 billion in debt and equity this fiscal year. Operating cash flow rose 184% to $23.10 billion, while interest expense climbed 55% to $1.4 billion. The bull scenario reaches $322.31 and the bear scenario $171.29, with the article citing rising borrowing costs and delayed datacenter deliveries as key risks.
- Oracle's Cloud Backlog Just Hit $664 Billion. Here's What a $1,000 Investment Could Be Worth If It Converts to Revenue on Schedule.
The article estimates a $1,000 investment in Oracle could grow to roughly $2,430 by 2029, if the company converts its cloud backlog on schedule, meets the $15.80 average EPS estimate for fiscal 2029, and keeps a 20 P/E multiple. Remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion as of Aug. 31, up $209 billion from a year earlier, and management expects about half to convert to revenue within 36 months. Cloud infrastructure revenue hit $7.4 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, up 121%, while GPU utilization reached 97.9%. However, free cash flow was negative $5 billion in the latest quarter due to heavy capital spending, and delays in bringing data-center capacity online could slow backlog conversion. The article's scenario puts the shares at $316 in three years, compared with a $130 close on Oct. 14.
- I’m Making a Contrarian Bet on Oracle at What Seems Like The Worst Moment Possible
The author says he bought more Oracle shares again, as the stock closed at $141.40, down 51.75% over one year and 26.49% year to date. He points to remaining performance obligations of $664 billion, up $209 billion year over year, and cloud infrastructure revenue that rose 121% to $7.39 billion. Oracle trades at a forward P/E of 18, below Microsoft's 25 and Amazon's 24, while paying a $0.50 quarterly dividend with a 1.48% yield. The main risk he watches is negative free cash flow of -$5.40 billion, as capex rose 235.2% to $28.50 billion, interest expense climbed 55% and a $20 billion equity issuance diluted his stake. He argues that operating cash flow rose 183.82% to $23.10 billion and that most new contracts require no additional Oracle capital, which keeps his buying thesis intact.
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