According to Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations (ATA), the freight recovery is driven by shrinking supply rather than stronger demand, as fewer trucks and drivers compete for roughly the same freight. ATA’s truckload volume measure was essentially flat through August after declining in 2025, and remained about 8.6% below its 2022 peak. Growth in aerospace, computer and electrical equipment manufacturing and data center construction has been strong, but these sectors account for only about 10% of manufacturing output and have not produced a broad freight rebound. Rising operating costs and falling rates squeezed carriers and pushed capacity out of the market, while average hourly driver earnings were up nearly 51% from 2019. Costello believes the cycle could last for a while.
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• NeutralSPDR S&P 500 ETF
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | ETF |
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 763.96 |
| Change that session | -1.18% |
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