News about food security

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia have hit record highs, bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter, and sugar in India reached an all-time high. The World Bank found food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% previously. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest reading since November 2022. Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt key exporters to impose export bans.

FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warned food inflation could intensify late this year and persist into 2027 due to shipping disruptions, expensive farm inputs and El Niño. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier, though still 15.1% below its March 2022 peak. In the U.S., grocery prices fell 0.1% in September while overall consumer prices rose 0.6% and reached an annual rate of 3.7%. FAO forecast a 2026 cereal harvest of 2.979 billion metric tons, 2.1% below the previous year's record. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center put the probability of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño lasting through January–March 2027 at greater than 83%.

FAO chief economist Maximo Torero warned that global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. Rice prices in Indonesia hit record highs, bread in Egypt rose by a quarter, and sugar in India reached a record after the weakest monsoon in more than a decade. The World Bank found that food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022, and the world's poorest consumers are being hit hardest.

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies. In Jakarta, a parking attendant has cut meals after rice, tempeh and tofu costs rose from 7,000–8,000 rupiah to 15,000 rupiah, while Indonesian rice prices hit record highs. The FAO expects a bigger impact toward year-end and into next year, and the World Bank found food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022. Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, raising the risk of social unrest and export bans.

Global food inflation is expected to accelerate in coming months and persist into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Niño drought squeeze cereal supplies. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136 points in September, its highest since November 2022. According to the World Bank, food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed in the September quarter, up from 14% previously. Wheat prices have risen more than 30% in 2026 and freight rates about 50% on key routes, while importers returning to the market could spark a new wave of demand. Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt exporters to impose trade bans, worsening shortages.

Global food inflation is likely to accelerate in the coming months and could last well into 2027, driven by two supply shocks. War-related shipping disruptions are slowing deliveries, while El Niño drought is hurting harvests and squeezing cereal supplies. Vulnerable consumers face even more pressure because food takes up a large share of their income. Early signs are already visible: Indonesia's rice price is at a record high due to late rains, Egypt's bread price has risen 25%, and India's sugar price is the highest ever after its weakest monsoon in more than ten years cut output. The article argues these cases share one problem: staple-food systems are highly sensitive to climate shocks and supply-chain stress.

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that sub-Saharan African economies could face worsening food insecurity if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. He said grain prices have risen significantly over the past six or seven months because of higher fertilizer prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino weather add further risk to output. According to the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook Update, median regional inflation is projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, while growth is forecast at 4.5 percent for both 2026 and 2027. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict began, raising borrowing costs for African countries. Zeidane also noted that Asian countries, especially China, have become increasingly important trading partners and financiers for Africa.

IMF official Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. Fertilizer prices rose sharply this year due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while attacks on grain shipments in the Black Sea and El Nino could further reduce agricultural output. The IMF projects median inflation in the region to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, with growth at 4.5 percent in both 2026 and 2027. The IMF update notes that high interest burdens, low reserves and falling aid leave little room to absorb another shock, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen more than 100 basis points since the conflict began. The IMF supports nearly 20 countries and is in ongoing discussions with about 10 others on potential new programs.

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices, as grain prices have risen significantly over the past six to seven months because of fertilizer costs. The U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drove fertilizer prices up this year, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino effects add further risk. The IMF's updated outlook projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, with growth at 4.5% in both years. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict started, raising borrowing costs for African countries, and Zeidane said China is now the largest trading partner in almost every African country.

An IMF official warned that sub-Saharan African economies could face worse food insecurity if new shocks keep driving up food prices, which have risen significantly over six or seven months partly because of fertilizer costs tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Zeine Zeidane, director of the IMF's African Department, also cited Black Sea grain shipment attacks and possible El Niño effects, and said the IMF's update calls for a tightening bias in monetary policy to control inflation. The update projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, with growth at 4.5% in both years. It warns that high interest burdens, low reserves and falling aid leave little room to absorb another shock, and that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields up more than 100 basis points since the conflict began keep borrowing costs high.

Nigeria spent $1.19 billion on food imports in the first half of 2026, up $121.52 million or 11.41% from the same period of 2025, according to an analysis of the Central Bank of Nigeria's quarterly bulletin. Forex spending on food imports rose in most months, and in the second quarter it climbed 26.38% to $650 million, offsetting a 2.57% decline in the first quarter. Industry figures blame insecurity, which has forced farmers off their land, and low adoption of modern farming technology for weak local output. Emir of Kano Muhammadu Sanusi II warned that open import policies, including rice from Thailand, have weakened local rice mills and left banks with bad loans, and urged support for poor households that does not harm domestic farmers.

The article points to Brazil's Marajó island, which has about half a million buffalo and 440,000 people, as evidence that buffalo can thrive where conventional livestock struggle. On October 8 in Nairobi, President William Ruto suggested Kenya could milk buffalo to address a dairy shortage tied to drought, declining pastures and high feed costs, starting small as a supplement to the national dairy herd. The author says online mockery confused this with wild Cape buffalo, whereas domesticated water buffalo has been milked for thousands of years. He notes that Kenya declared water buffalo a food animal under the Meat Control Act last January and endorsed a 2018 trade protocol with Brazil. He also cites India's 247.87 million tonnes of 2024-25 milk output, about 43 percent from buffalo, and argues the idea should be judged on economics, biology and productivity rather than familiarity.