Anthropic filed its public S-1 prospectus on October 26 and is expected to debut before Thanksgiving, and the author lays out four reasons for not getting involved. Citing Truist data on 30 hyped tech IPOs since May 2012, only 43% were higher after one year, and the average year-one maximum drawdown was 55%. The article says Anthropic could be valued at $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion on trailing sales of $19.7 billion, implying a trailing price-to-sales ratio of 76 to 102, well above the 30 level the author says has historically been associated with bubbles. It also argues that game-changing technologies have seen early bubbles burst, and that Anthropic's prospectus lays out 23 insider share-unlock events, including one on debut day, compared with the typical 180-day lockup.
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| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Information Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors |
| Market cap | $5.1T |
| Close on 11/04/2026 | 200.28 |
| Change that session | -3.10% |
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