Rivian (RIVN) shareholders are counting on the R2, a lower-cost SUV that management expects to take its car business to gross profit by the end of 2026. After fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 29, the stock rose 6.2% in the next session while the S&P 500 fell 1.8%. Rivian raised its 2026 delivery forecast to 67,000–70,000 vehicles and narrowed its adjusted EBITDA loss forecast to $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion from $1.9 billion, but the $100 million improvement came from regulatory credits, a tariff refund receivable and higher deliveries. Revenue grew 38.3% in Q3, yet the car business still posted an $80 million gross loss, and the extra cost of building the R2 at early volumes was about $120 million. Free cash flow was negative $1.12 billion in the quarter, and the article points to whether the car business reaches gross profit in fiscal Q4 2026, reported in February 2027, as the key test.
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