Coeur Mining shares lost 25.3% year to date including dividends, against a bullish case built on gold at $4,000, silver at $100, a 30% free cash flow margin and a 10x FCF multiple. The shares started the period at US$17.83; the bullish narrative put fair value at US$21.6 on 51.2% revenue growth and a 9.5% profit margin, while the cautious view set US$13.64 with 14.3% revenue growth and a 33.2% profit margin and flagged regulatory and jurisdictional risk. Q2 2026 revenue reached US$1.09b versus US$480.65m a year earlier, helped by the New Gold acquisition, and net income rose, but the net margin fell from 14.7% to 11.2%. The shares now trade at US$13.1, and the selected narrative assumes production growth, cost discipline and asset integration will sustain revenue and margin strength. The article concludes that the original thesis depended heavily on margins, not just metal prices or output.
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