News about energy security

Even as crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz recover, the global diesel shortage persists because refinery output in the Middle East and Russia remains constrained and other suppliers cannot fully offset the loss. Diesel prices hit records in mid-September, and the G7's promised release of 100 million barrels offers no easy fix. The IEA expects the crunch to extend into mid-2027, as gasoil supply falls short of demand and inventories are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. Global diesel exports fell 700,000 bpd in September from a year earlier, and diesel accounts for 25% of the expected 2.6 million bpd drop in global oil demand this year. Diesel prices have eased from September's peak above $200 a barrel but remain nearly double crude prices.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned that Europe will struggle to fully make up for lost gas supply if it keeps cutting Russian volumes, amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted production at a Qatari LNG facility that halted after attacks in March. He said the EU's LNG import ban, effective January 1, 2027, makes little sense while supply is tight, and that European consumers would bear the consequences. Novak estimated European gas reserves are about 10% below the average of previous years, and Reuters forecasts storage will reach only about 75–78% of capacity by November, well below the five-year average. Still, Russia supplied about 12 million tonnes of LNG to Europe in the first nine months of 2026, higher than a year earlier, as European buyers rush to purchase and stockpile before the ban. The EU has adopted a roadmap to end Russian gas imports, banning long-term LNG contracts from January 1, 2027 and phasing out pipeline gas during 2027.

Crude oil prices hovered near recent highs on Sunday as traders weighed Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil facilities and more tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf. Brent fell $1.04 to $108.82 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 26 cents to $101.15. Fires broke out at an oil terminal and depot in St. Petersburg after a massive Ukrainian drone attack; the terminal exports about 120,000 barrels per day of refined products, but the extent of the damage is unclear. Ukraine had briefly paused energy strikes after Trump announced a truce on Oct. 11, but Russia kept hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, so Zelenskyy said Kyiv would resume strikes on Russian facilities. Two tankers were also attacked off Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to UKMTO, amid Iran's escalating attacks on tankers aimed at choking off regional crude exports.

The article argues that Saudi Arabia's security is a strategic concern for the global economy, as attacks on airports and oil refineries threaten energy supplies worldwide. On October 10, a Houthi missile reportedly struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing 13 people and injuring more than 300. With the Strait of Hormuz disrupted during the Iran war, the East-West Pipeline became a key alternative route, carrying about 4 million barrels per day before drone attacks forced its temporary closure in September. The piece says geopolitical risk pushed Brent above $100 per barrel, burdening consumers and airlines, and it cites Greece's Patriot deployment as a model for partner contributions, calling for a broader, shared defense effort.

The UAE concluded its participation in the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group, held in Bangkok from 12 to 18 October, with a Ministry of Finance delegation led by Minister of State for Financial Affairs Mohamed bin Hadi Al Hussaini. The delegation attended ministerial sessions, including the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, a MENAP meeting with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and a meeting of Arab governors with World Bank President Ajay Banga. Al Hussaini said the UAE aims to safeguard global financial stability, energy security, supply chain stability, and development financing. The UAE also hosted the 2026 UAE Banks Reception in Bangkok and held bilateral talks with counterparts from New Zealand, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and China, as well as the EBRD president.

The United Arab Emirates has concluded its participation in the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group, held in Bangkok from 12 to 18 October, with a delegation led by Minister of State for Financial Affairs Mohamed bin Hadi Al Hussaini. The delegation took part in ministerial sessions, the G20 finance meeting and the IMFC plenary, met IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, and held bilateral talks with several international financial institutions. The UAE stressed the need for broader strategic cooperation and modern financing tools to sustain development finance. Al Hussaini said sustained collective action is needed to safeguard global financial stability, energy security, supply chain stability and technological transformation.

HMS Prince of Wales, the UK's largest warship, left Portsmouth on Sunday to lead the UK Carrier Strike Group on a deployment to the Arctic and North Atlantic, marking phase two of Operation Firecrest, focused on readiness, training and NATO interoperability. It sails with the Type-45 destroyer HMS Dauntless and carries an air group of F-35 jets, Merlin and Wildcat helicopters and Malloy drones. The Royal Navy says more than 1,200 British personnel are deployed, working with Norway, Denmark and Germany. The UK government says the deployment will help keep key energy, trade and communication links in the region secure, and the carrier will host military and political leaders in Oslo to discuss Northern European security.

Energy security used to mean securing a constant flow of fuels that were burned and gone, but electrification shifts trade toward durable equipment such as solar panels, batteries and EVs that keep producing energy for years. The author argues this changes the nature of economic dependence, although supply chains remain international. Ukraine's grid synchronization with the Continental European power system after the 2022 invasion shows how interconnection can add resilience. Pakistan's distributed solar capacity was estimated at roughly 50 GW by the end of 2025. The State Bank of Pakistan estimates that reduced energy imports saved about $7.1 billion in foreign exchange over six years and could cut the 2026 energy-import bill by a further $5.2 to $7.8 billion. The IEA estimates the global EV fleet displaced about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2025, with China accounting for roughly one million of them.

According to The New York Times, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner urged Ukraine and European allies to consider resuming Russian gas transit through Ukrainian pipelines as an economic element of a peace settlement. The idea faces firm opposition in Europe, especially Germany, where officials argue that reliance on Russian hydrocarbons undermines energy security. Washington argues that restored flows would give the Kremlin a commercial incentive to halt military operations and bring transit revenue for Ukraine's reconstruction, and some officials suggest the US could seek a share of the proceeds. The White House confirmed its proposals include economic incentives for both sides and denied actively discussing a revival of Nord Stream 2, though one source called restarting intact segments the “simplest step”. In Germany, the AfD, polling near 30 percent, has campaigned for cheap Russian gas imports, while European officials warn restored flows would undermine sanctions and generate billions for Moscow's defense industry.