Ultra-short-term prediction contracts on cryptocurrency price moves are growing in popularity, with Coinbase offering 15-minute contracts on Bitcoin, Ethereum and eight other major cryptocurrencies from Oct. 6, and Kalshi supplying the infrastructure. Financial Times reporting showed that five- to 15-minute contracts made up more than half of crypto betting on Kalshi and Polymarket as of March 2026. The author argues most bettors will lose money due to high fees and faster automated traders. A Galaxy Research report from Oct. 1 found that 69% of 2.9 million Polymarket accounts apparently run by people lost a combined $338.9 million, while 125,429 automated accounts gained $246.8 million. The author concludes that long-term investors have no good reason to use these contracts as a hedge or for returns, and expects tighter regulation to follow.
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