Micron (MU) has risen about 400% over the past year and 1,250% over three years, as a memory chip shortage has pushed prices and sector stocks sharply higher. In its latest quarter, revenue grew 379% to $54.2 billion with an operating margin of 80.7%, yet the stock remains 23% below its June all-time high because investors expect profits to fall once the supply crunch eases. Over the past decade, Micron has fallen more than 23% five times and each time recovered to or near its all-time high, while after the dot-com peak it took about 20 years to return to that level. The article cites factors that differ now, including strategic customer agreements covering a significant share of revenue through 2030, continued AI-driven demand, and a $100 billion megafab complex in upstate New York. The author expects the stock to recover, noting it trades at a forward P/E of less than 6.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Related news
- History Suggests Micron Stock Will Crash and Take Decades to Recover. Is This Time Different?
Micron's stock has surged this year, but the article argues it could crash and take decades to recover, as it did after its 2000 peak. Micron is one of three major DRAM makers, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, which together control over 85% of the DRAM market; last quarter, 73% of its revenue came from DRAM and 26% from NAND. The author estimates less than 10% of revenue comes from high bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI, so the company is highly exposed to falling prices for conventional DRAM and NAND. Rising output from China's CXMT could push those prices down, and the author expects a steep fall in that case, though less severe than in 2000 and with Micron still able to stay profitable. The author says the stock should be avoided for now.
- Costco Wholesale Has Fallen More Than 10 % From Its Peak Before . Here What History Says Happens Next .
Costco's stock, down 10% or more from its peak, has historically set a new high within a year, though two recent cases were exceptions. Over the past 10 years it fell 10% or more seven times before this decline; in five of them it set a new record within 12 months, and all seven recovered, the slowest in about 19 months. The two most recent drops lasted far longer: the 31.5% slide from April 2022's high took until December 2023 to recover, while the decline that began in February 2025 lasted until May 2026. With a P/E of 47.3 versus a 10-year average of 40 and slowing comparable-warehouse sales growth (8.8% in June versus 12.5% in May), the author thinks a new high within 12 months is less likely than the record implies, but still considers the dip a chance for long-term holders to buy more shares.
- Costco Wholesale Has Fallen More Than 10 % From Its Peak Before . Here What History Says Happens Next .
Costco (COST) is more than 10% below its peak, but the article notes such declines have historically been followed by a new record high within a year, though two recent exceptions stand out. Over the past 10 years the stock had seven drops of 10% or more before this one, five of which reached a new high within 12 months, and all seven eventually recovered. The two most recent declines took longer: the slide from the April 2022 high did not recover until December 2023, and the decline that began in February 2025 lasted until May 2026. The author points to slowing comparable sales, which rose 8.8% in June 2026 versus 12.5% in May, and a P/E of 47.3, still above its 10-year average of 40, as reasons a new high within 12 months looks less likely.
- Costco Wholesale Has Fallen More Than 10% From Its Peak Before. Here's What History Says Happens Next.
Costco's stock has fallen more than 10% from its May record high, with the drawdown at the lows just over 18%, and a recovery is already underway. Over the past 10 years, it had seven drops of 10% or more before this one and recovered from each, setting a new record within 12 months in five cases. The two most recent exceptions were a 31.5% slump from the April 2022 high that took until December 2023 to recover, and a decline from February 2025 that lasted until May 2026. Sales at warehouses open at least a year slowed to 8.8% in June 2026 from 12.5% in May, and the P/E of 47.3 on Oct. 15 remains well above its 10-year average of 40. The author, a long-term holder, says a new high within 12 months is less likely than the stock's record suggests, but sees the dip as a chance to buy more shares.
- Microsoft Went 240 Trading Days Without a Record Close. History Says What Usually Happens Next.
Microsoft closed at a record $543.45 on October 13, its first record close after 240 trading days since $542.07 on October 28, 2025. During that wait, the stock fell to $352.83 by June 25, about 35% below the previous record, before rising around 54%. Of seven earlier waits of at least 150 trading days since its 1986 IPO, the stock was higher a year later in five cases, while the 1992 and 2025 cases were followed by declines because a short rally after the record led into a second long wait. The article argues Microsoft got cheaper during the wait: its P/E was around 40 at the 2025 record and about 30 now, as fiscal 2026 EPS rose 32% to $17.95 (non-GAAP up 22%). Its fiscal 2027 first-quarter report, due October 28, may show whether that growth is holding up.
- The Fed Hiked Rates for the First Time Since July 2023. History Says This Happens Next for Crypto.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on Sept. 16 in a unanimous vote, its first hike since July 2023. The article notes rate hikes are usually a headwind for crypto, yet Bitcoin was up 10% since the hike as of Oct. 11. It points to March 2022, when the Fed's hike was followed by a bear market in which Bitcoin fell 65% and the total crypto market cap dropped from over $2 trillion to $839 billion. In the earlier cycle that began in December 2015, Bitcoin rose 63% after six months and 73% after a year even as rates climbed. The article suggests the market may be choppy over the next six months to a year, while cautioning that nothing is guaranteed.
Related markets
Latest news
- Roblox Is Now Down 38% in 2026: Is RBLX Stock Dead Money or Poised for a Comeback?
Roblox stock is down 38% year to date to $50.41, with a late-September court ruling letting a Los Angeles County child exploitation lawsuit proceed and a Jefferies downgrade to Underperform adding pressure. Jefferies argued the rally after the Q2 report priced in too much bookings growth, which rose only 8% to $1.6 billion in Q2 even as daily active users grew 10% to 123 million. Safety changes, including a mandatory age check, had already led Roblox to cut its full-year revenue growth forecast to 20% to 25% earlier this year. For Q3 2026, Roblox forecasts a year-over-year bookings decline of 14% to 18%. Take-Two (down 20%) and GameStop (up 31%) year to date suggest the pressure is specific to Roblox, and the article frames the key test as whether bookings stabilize while user growth continues.
- Super Micro (SMCI) Won Over $60 Billion in Orders, Is the Discount Deserved?
A contractor linked to Super Micro Computer (SMCI) pleaded guilty earlier this month to helping ship servers with advanced Nvidia chips to China, a case prosecutors say involved billions of dollars of U.S. AI technology, though the company says it was not named as a defendant and its operations are unaffected. Sales for the fiscal year ended June reached $39.1 billion, up from $22.0 billion, with CEO Charles Liang citing more than $60 billion in new orders, several hundred added enterprise customers, and a record backlog. Management guides to $65.0 billion to $72.0 billion in fiscal 2027 sales, and sales have grown about 61.5% a year over five years. Gross margin was 10.8% for the full year but rose to 17.5% in the June quarter, with net income of $1,178 million, while the trailing 12-month operating margin was 7.09%. The article notes the stock trades at a much lower multiple of expected earnings than the sector, and that one strong quarter does not yet prove a new margin level.
- Is Nvidia Stock Really Trading for Just 8 Times 2030 Earnings?
Nvidia is the market's most valuable company, with a market cap above $5 trillion. It trades at 27 times adjusted trailing earnings, but only about 8 times analysts' estimate for fiscal 2030 earnings, a figure the author stresses is a moving target. Revenue growth accelerated from 56% in Q2 FY 2026 to 106% in Q2 FY 2027, though guidance points to a slight slowdown in the current quarter. The stock trades at 13 times next year's earnings, and the board recently authorized a record $150 billion in share repurchases. The author also acknowledges risks such as slower growth or contracting net margins.
- California billionaire tax could backfire, Stanford study says
Stanford economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh argue in an NBER working paper that California's proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaire wealth could raise far less than projected and ultimately reduce state revenue. Seven billionaires, including Peter Thiel, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have publicly left the state, removing about $540 billion, or 30%, of California's billionaire wealth from potential taxation. The authors estimate the measure could generate only about $30 billion, versus the $100 billion projected by proponents, while losing $1 billion to $3.5 billion a year in income tax revenue could leave the state about $39 billion worse off in present-value terms if those losses persist. The measure, Proposition 40, goes to voters next month, and a Citrin-Politico poll found 46% of likely voters in favor and 43% opposed. Supporters, including Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and Joseph Stiglitz, argue the tax will fund health care and that California has attracted more venture funding since the proposal was announced.
- US Orders Civilian Agencies to Rip DeepSeek Out of Government Systems
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security on Monday ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and third-party services built on the model from their IT systems, and to stop buying them. The notice warns that using DeepSeek may transfer sensitive data to China and could produce intelligence on U.S. persons and agencies. The Commerce Department, the Navy, and the states of New York, Tennessee and Virginia had already restricted DeepSeek. The FCC votes on October 29 on barring Chinese labs from testing electronics for U.S. use.
- NVIDIA Stock And 2 Other Undervalued Stocks To Own
Rising interest rates have pushed down bond prices, with 10-year U.S. Treasuries recording one of their steepest multi-year declines since the 18th century. The article highlights three U.S. stocks that a Simply Wall St cash flow screen considers attractively priced relative to their future cash flow potential: NVIDIA, Wells Fargo and J.B. Hunt Transport Services. NVIDIA generated about US$275.4b from Compute & Networking and US$27.6b from Graphics, with a market cap of US$5,170.6b, and the piece notes that an open-source or cheaper alternative to its CUDA platform could weaken its moat. Wells Fargo, with a market cap of US$251.7b, grew average loans 12% and average deposits 10% year over year in 2Q26 after the removal of its asset cap, while J.B. Hunt, with a market cap of US$21.3b and US$13.3b in revenue, recorded record intermodal volume of over 578,000 loads in Q2 2026.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.