American Express (AXP) reported strong third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 23 and raised full-year guidance, forecasting record EPS of $18.30 to $18.60 ($17.60 to $17.90 adjusted) and 10% revenue growth. Yet the stock is down 15.3% year to date, which would be its worst annual decline since 2015. The article points to a decade-long rally that outpaced earnings (452.8% total return versus 322.1% for the S&P 500, with earnings nearly tripling), and to rising card member reward, business development and services expenses that have gradually narrowed gross margins. Other concerns include a possible consumer spending slowdown if cost-of-living pressures or asset prices weaken, and AI-related spending, including a $336 million restructuring charge after a 5% cut in global headcount. The article asks why the stock has become so inexpensive given its business model, record earnings and credit quality.
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