Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem sounded hawkish in an interview at an International Monetary Fund meeting, leading economists to suggest a rate hike could still come in 2026. Canada's headline inflation rose to 3.1% year over year in September, slightly below the 3.2% estimate, driven by higher gasoline prices, and has been above the bank's 1–3% target for eight of the past nine months. Core inflation slowed to 1.9% month over month (from 2%) and 1.8% year over year (from 1.9%), while the benchmark rate has been held at 2.25% for the past seven meetings. Bank of Montreal said markets had leaned toward a hike, but a tame core reading won't necessarily stop the bank as it stays focused on headline inflation above 3%. Royal Bank of Canada expects the bank to hold through the rest of the year and hike next year, given job losses in August and September, while KPMG Canada expects a hold in October with a possible hike as soon as December.
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Related tickers and likely impact
USD/CAD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 1.41389 |
| Change that session | -0.32% |
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