Statistics Canada reported that consumer prices rose 3.1% year over year in September, up from 3% in August, mainly because energy prices were 19% higher than a year earlier. Grocery prices rose 1.7%, the smallest annual increase since May 2024, and shelter prices rose 1.8%. Core measures were steady, with CPI-median at 1.9% and CPI-trim at 1.8%, a bit softer than economists expected. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that the risk of inflation broadening and becoming more persistent has risen, while BMO and TD still expect rates to stay on hold through 2027, though BMO's Robert Kavcic said a rate hike is possible.
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Related tickers and likely impact
USD/CAD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 1.41389 |
| Change that session | -0.32% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Bank of Canada warns energy costs threaten inflation targets
- Bank of Canada Signals Higher Inflation Forecast as Oil Prices Surge
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to raise its inflation forecast significantly this month, Governor Tiff Macklem said, citing high oil prices and Middle East tensions. The revised projections will be key to the October 28 rate decision. Macklem warned that disruptions to oil shipments and refinery damage raise the risk of inflation becoming broader and harder to control, though the bank remains committed to its 2% target and ready to adjust policy. Markets expect no rate change on October 28 or in December, but money markets price in about 100 basis points of hikes in 2027. WTI crude closed at $101.84 per barrel on October 16, up 3.95%.
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Statistics Canada said annual inflation rose to 3.1% in September, led by a 27.8% jump in gasoline prices from a year earlier as the Middle East war kept pushing up gas prices, despite the switch to cheaper winter gas. Excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose 2.2%, while fuel oil surged 57.8%, hitting Atlantic Canada hard where many homes are heated with oil. Grocery inflation slowed to 1.7%, its smallest yearly increase since May 2024, as fresh vegetables fell 2.9% and sugar and confectionery dropped 2.7%, while beef rose 8.7% after 11% in August. Shelter prices rose 1.8%, up from 1.5% in August, with mortgage insurance up 4.9% and home maintenance and repair costs up 1.2%.
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Canada's annual inflation rose to 3.1% in September, driven by a 27.8% jump in gasoline prices from a year earlier, even with the switch to a cheaper winter blend. Excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose 2.2%, while fuel oil and other fuels surged 57.8%, hitting Atlantic Canada hard. Grocery prices rose 1.7%, the smallest yearly increase since May 2024, though they are up 33% since September 2020. Shelter prices rose 1.8%, up from 1.5% in August, largely due to a 4.9% increase in mortgage insurance.
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