Đinh Ngọc Dũng, Chairman and CEO of Bảo Tín Capital, said Vietnam's stock market is entering a new cycle of strong growth in both scale and quality. Market capitalisation rose from about 1% of GDP in 2000 to 82.6% of GDP in 2025, while Q3 2026 GDP is estimated to have grown 9.95%. Post-tax profits of 403 of 404 HOSE-listed companies reported for Q2 reached 217,020 billion VND, up 47.5% year on year, but the top five firms, VHM, VIC, VCB, CTG and VPB, accounted for 35% of total profits, so the gains remain concentrated. Bảo Tín Capital estimates passive inflows from the upgrade at about 1.5 billion USD, while the VN-Index P/E stands at 12.10 times, about 8% below its five-year average. Mr. Dũng said profit is the main driver of share prices, and the “Đông Xuân khoán” pattern has held in 16 of 16 seasons from 2010–2011 to 2025–2026, with an average gain of about 20.7%, though this is the maximum swing between trough and peak rather than realised return.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Original headline: Bảo Tín Capital: Kỳ vọng chu kỳ tăng trưởng mới và quy luật “Đông Xuân Khoán”
Keywords
VietnamVNINDEXearningsvaluationmarket upgrade
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
VNINDEX
▲ Likely positiveRelevance: medium
| Market | Vietnam stocks |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/22/2026 | 1,760.63 |
| Change that session | +1.26% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Notable stocks at the open of the 20/10 session
Market liquidity fell sharply in the 12–16/10 trading week, with average trading value on HOSE and HNX dropping below 14 trillion VND. The VN-Index lost more than 29 points that week, with VIC and VHM the biggest drags. Securities stocks have fallen over 24% since the start of the year despite expected gains from a market upgrade. In the 19/10 session, ACB saw net selling of hundreds of billions by foreign and proprietary investors, while large money flows moved against the trend at FRT and CTG. Also, 21 of 22 tracked construction and building materials stocks have declined since early 2026, and HOSE moved PLP to restricted trading on 16/10.
- Renewing IR for a New Era
The article argues that investor relations is shifting from communications toward strategy and involvement in decision-making, as capital markets become more volatile, AI advances and new trading models emerge. AI increasingly extracts key points from IR content before investors read it, so companies must make their disclosures clear to people and also friendly to automated analysis systems. The piece also flags risks from fake content and deepfakes, and says companies should keep disclosures transparent, engage investors regularly and prepare crisis communication procedures. In Vietnam, as the market is upgraded to emerging status, companies such as Gemadept, PAN and VietinBank are cited for building clear investment stories and actively engaging investors, with VietinBank holding quarterly investor conferences.
- Bank Profits Surge
The 9-month 2026 results show many banks continued to grow profits, with some posting record quarterly earnings. VPBank's pre-tax profit reached nearly VND 30,000 billion, up nearly 47%, equal to its full-year 2025 result and about 72.4% of its 2026 plan; Q3 pre-tax profit topped VND 11,000 billion. Techcombank posted VND 28,900 billion (up 23.7%), while LPBank reported VND 10,421 billion (up nearly 9%). SSI forecasts pre-tax profit of its monitored banks to rise 19.5% in 2026 before slowing to 15.4% in 2027, pressured by narrowing net interest margins and rising credit risk provisions. It also expects system-wide credit growth of 16-17% in 2027 and 17.9% for the monitored banks.
- Expert: Stocks May See a Technical Rebound Next Week
VN-Index closed the week at 1,705.91 points, down 1.58% from the previous week. Analysts expect further technical rebounds next week, but say this is not yet enough to confirm a bottom: 1,680–1,700 points is seen as nearby support and 1,715–1,750 points as resistance. Views differ on the next move: KBS warns the index could retest 1,650–1,670 points if selling by blue chips and foreign investors continues, while AseanSC says it must clear 1,715–1,735 points to confirm a bottom. The article suggests investors keep moderate exposure and watch liquidity and the Q3 reporting season, with the disclosure deadline on October 20.
- Stock accumulation opportunities start to emerge, expert points to several notable stock groups
General Director Bùi Văn Huy of FIDT says the VN-Index's P/E of about 12 times (about 10 times excluding the Vingroup group) looks more attractive, but weak liquidity makes gradual accumulation the more suitable approach. He notes that investors who have not yet deployed capital could test with 20–30% of their planned amount, keeping the rest in deposits or short-term bond funds, while reviewing funds heavily concentrated in a few stocks. FIDT's estimates show Q3 2026 profit growth diverging sharply: residential real estate up 185%, oil and gas up 141%, retail up 90.9%, steel up 40.8%, while construction is seen falling 85.8%. However, excluding Vinhomes (VHM), the remaining residential real estate companies' profits are estimated to fall about 0.4%, indicating that growth is concentrated in large sector leaders.
- Many stocks 'going cold' in investors' eyes
SSI Research says the VN-Index is down about 9% from its 2026 peak, but excluding Vingroup-related stocks the index has fallen as much as 16% since early September 2025. In the first 9 months of the year, the index excluding VIC, VHM, VRE and VPL dropped 6.5%, while the Vingroup group rose 22.7%. VinaCapital argues that capital concentrated in a few leading stocks leaves many businesses with good prospects overlooked, and BVH, GMD and PVS have risen about 20-40% since the start of the year. Deputy CEO Nguyen Hoai Thu says investors should study each company rather than chase the market leaders, and that low prices alone do not identify an opportunity. SSI Research forecasts market-wide profit growth slowing to about 10.1% in 2027 from 30% in 2026.
Related markets
Latest news
- Cardano holders are being asked to bet $5 million on copper hitting a new record
Toto Finance is asking Cardano's treasury for 22 million ADA, about $5 million, to buy and tokenize copper, with voting closing Nov. 15. About two-thirds of the budget would buy copper stored in a COMEX-approved warehouse for 18 to 24 months before sale, while the rest covers storage, insurance, audits and Toto's work. If the full budget is spent and ADA's dollar price stays unchanged, copper would need to rise about 49.4% for the treasury to recover its investment, and there is no guarantee the treasury gets its original ADA back. Toto could receive up to 3.36 million ADA, roughly 15% of the request, and would keep its commercial rights to its tokenized-copper business. The proposal would use just over half of Cardano's remaining withdrawal allowance, which would not be replenished under existing rules.
- Bitcoin Core changes security policy as AI makes bugs easier to find
Bitcoin Core is changing its security disclosure policy because large language models have made some flaws easy to rediscover, so long embargoes offer little protection. Under the new policy, vulnerabilities deemed easily discoverable will be fixed as soon as possible across all maintained major versions, with security advisories published alongside the updates. Other flaws will follow severity-based schedules: low-severity bugs will be disclosed two weeks after the fix is released, while medium and high-severity bugs will be disclosed two weeks after the last affected release reaches End of Life, typically a year after the fix. The change follows a volunteer Bitcoin Red Team report of nearly 5,000 potential issues across 390 projects in August, though only about a fifth had been reproduced at that point.
- Asia FX steadies as oil surge weighs on risk appetite, yen holds gains
Asian currencies and the U.S. dollar were largely subdued on Friday as investors weighed rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions, while the yen held its gains after a safe-haven rally tied to concerns over global growth and tech valuations. The U.S. Dollar Index was flat at 101.60 by 03:33 GMT, near a three-week low and on track for a second straight weekly loss. USD/JPY edged up 0.1% to 156.90 after a nearly 1% drop in the previous session, as the yen reached its highest level in more than a month. Brent crude near $114 a barrel, after a 4% jump on Thursday following attacks in Saudi Arabia, raises inflation risks for energy importers such as Japan, India and South Korea. The Indian rupee extended its losses, with USD/INR up 0.3% to 95.109, while the yuan hovered near four-year lows; the Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00% on October 28, with ECB and BoJ decisions due on October 29 and 30.
- Securities firm with the heaviest loss in the sector in Q3 2026 revealed
APG Securities (APG) posted a pre-tax loss of nearly 108 billion VND in Q3 2026, compared with a profit of nearly 20 billion VND a year earlier, the largest loss among securities firms that have reported Q3 results. Revenue fell 21% to nearly 69 billion VND and gains from FVTPL financial assets dropped 93%, while operating expenses rose to nearly 124 billion VND, mainly due to a 119 billion VND loss on FVTPL assets. Financial expenses rose nearly 33% to 43.5 billion VND, mostly interest costs. For the first nine months, APG recorded a pre-tax loss of nearly 105 billion VND, against a profit of over 28 billion VND a year earlier, putting its 2026 pre-tax profit target of 20 billion VND under pressure.
- IonQ vs. Rigetti Computing: Which Quantum Computing Stock Is the Better Buy?
The article compares quantum computing companies IonQ (ion-based) and Rigetti Computing (superconducting). Rigetti reported Q2 revenue of $5.1 million, up from $1.8 million in 2025, but an operating loss of $28.1 million, and held $541.3 million in cash and investments; it also received a $100 million award from the U.S. Department of Commerce. IonQ posted Q2 revenue of $80.1 million and forecasts 2026 sales of $280–290 million versus $130 million in 2025, though its Q2 operating loss widened to $337.2 million from $160.6 million, and the Elisity deal involves stock valued at up to $1.3 billion. The author judges IonQ the better investment given its consistent revenue growth, says they bought IonQ shares, and notes Rigetti's price-to-sales ratio is more than six times IonQ's.
- Hoa Binh Construction dismisses a Deputy General Director
Hoa Binh Construction (HBC) dismissed Nguyen Kinh Luan from his position as Deputy General Director effective 1 November 2026, for personal reasons, and he will remain a Board member. Earlier, on 15 September 2026, Mr. Luan resigned from all his positions at the company and related entities. Separately, on 18 September 2026, the company distributed more than 51.4 million shares to 99 creditors to swap debt of nearly VND 514.2 billion, equal to 100% of the shares issued. The swapped shares are restricted from transfer for one year and are expected to be delivered within 30 days after the issuance closes.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.