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SGI Capital says Vietnam's macro picture after the first three quarters of 2026 still shows bright spots, but the stock market enters the fourth quarter facing two risks: policy pressure and liquidity risk from margin leverage. After the FTSE upgrade, trading liquidity fell below VND 15,000 billion per session and foreign investors turned to heavy net selling, driven by fears of rising global inflation and interest rates. Margin debt at a historically high level is seen as a risk that could trigger forced-sale pressure as cash demand rises in the fourth quarter. Longer term, Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC, effective 16/11/2026, introduces CCP clearing and removes the 100% cash pre-funding (NPF) requirement for foreign institutional investors, which Hàn Hữu Hậu, CEO of Hy Maxpro, called an important upgrade.

Indonesian stocks slid to a six-year low in a record two-day rout, falling 11.6% on Friday and more than 5% on Monday, after MSCI said it was considering shifting Indonesia to 'standalone' status from next year. The exchange halved its down limit to 7% to try to slow the selling. The rupiah weakened to 18,040 per dollar, near the record low of 18,190 hit in June, while the 10-year bond yield rose to 7.4%. Goldman Sachs estimates a full MSCI removal could trigger $5.6 billion of passive outflows, and foreign investors have net sold $4.88 billion of Indonesian stocks so far this year. S&P Global said the outflows were unlikely to materially raise financing costs, but damage to investor confidence was the bigger concern.

HSBC Mutual Fund said foreign outflows and rising global bond yields are likely to remain key headwinds for Indian markets, while corporate earnings growth is expected to drive equity returns in the near term. The Nifty 50 fell 6 per cent in September, with the Nifty Midcap 150 down 7.1 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 250 down 3.1 per cent; IT and auto were the worst-performing sectors, falling 11 per cent and 9 per cent. Foreign institutional investors pulled USD 4.1 billion in September, taking their 2026 net selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions bought a net USD 8.1 billion. The RBI raised its repo rate to 5.50 per cent on October 7, and HSBC expects a further rise to 6 per cent if inflation worsens or global rates stay elevated. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13 per cent below its five-year average valuation.

HSBC Mutual Fund said Indian equities saw a broad-based correction in September amid higher crude prices, Middle East tensions and tighter monetary policy in major economies. The Nifty 50 fell 6%, the Nifty Midcap 150 dropped 7.1% and the Nifty Smallcap 250 fell 3.1%. Foreign institutional investors pulled USD 4.1 billion in September, taking their 2026 net selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions bought USD 8.1 billion. The fund expects corporate earnings to drive returns but flags higher global bond yields and commodity prices as risks, and sees the RBI's repo rate, raised to 5.50% on October 7, possibly reaching 6% if inflation worsens. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13% below its five-year average valuation.

HSBC Mutual Fund said Indian equities suffered a broad-based correction in September, driven by rising crude oil prices, Middle East tensions and tighter monetary policy in major economies. The Nifty 50 fell 6 per cent, the Nifty Midcap 150 dropped 7.1 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 250 declined 3.1 per cent, with IT and automobile stocks the worst performers at 11 per cent and 9 per cent. Foreign institutional investors pulled out USD 4.1 billion in September, bringing their 2026 total selling to USD 28.3 billion, while domestic institutions were net buyers of USD 8.1 billion. HSBC expects corporate earnings to drive returns but flags higher global bond yields and commodity prices as risks, while the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50 per cent on October 7 and could lift it to 6 per cent if inflation worsens. The Nifty 50 trades at 17 times one-year forward earnings, about 13 per cent below its five-year average valuation.

Indonesia's benchmark index fell over 5% on Monday to its lowest since early October 2020, as fears grew that MSCI could downgrade the market. On Friday MSCI proposed reclassifying Indonesia from emerging-market to stand-alone status, with a final decision expected by June that hinges on governance and transparency improvements. Goldman Sachs estimates a full removal from MSCI's emerging-market indexes could trigger about $5.6 billion in passive outflows, with a further $2.7 billion at risk if FTSE Russell follows. The MSCI Indonesia Index has fallen 47% this year, foreign investors have net sold $5.1 billion, and foreign ownership has dropped from 27% in January to 25% in October. Goldman keeps an underweight rating, warns Indonesian equities may not have bottomed, and expects the central bank to raise rates twice more by 25 basis points in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.

On 16/10, HOSE moved PLP shares of CTCP Sản xuất và Công nghệ Nhựa Pha Lê from the control list to the trading restriction list. During 12-16/10, the VN-Index lost more than 29 points, with VIC and VHM the biggest drags, while the HNX-Index also declined. The VN-Index rebounded 7.56 points on 16/10 after seven straight losing sessions, but liquidity was weak. On 15/10, foreign investors and securities firms' proprietary trading together net sold over 926 billion VND, while VPB drew net buying of over 218 billion VND. The article also notes that 21 of 22 tracked construction and building-materials stocks have fallen since the start of 2026, against sector growth, and that TCBS (HOSE: TCX) reported Q3/2026 results with quarterly pre-tax profit at a high level.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said excess liquidity and easy exits have contributed to the underperformance of India's equity market and may continue to do so, though she described the economy's fundamentals as “fine.” Benchmark indexes have fallen nearly 12% since January, and foreign portfolio investors have sold over $33 billion of direct Indian equities this year. Goldman Sachs data show India's weighting in the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index has dropped from 19% a few years ago to 10%, while Taiwan (29%) and Korea (22%) have attracted flows tied to AI. Sitharaman said India would not be hurt if the AI bubble bursts, that the country is “no longer a laggard” in frontier tech, and that investment is going into semiconductor manufacturing.

One month after FTSE Russell upgraded Vietnam to secondary emerging market status, foreign investors net sold on 19 of 20 sessions, with only one net-buy session worth VND 54 billion. Cumulative net selling since Sept. 21 is about VND 24,800 billion (~US$1 billion), and year-to-date it exceeds VND 116,000 billion, close to the 2025 record of VND 125,000 billion. Selling pressure has spread to FPT and PNJ, whose foreign ownership has fallen below 28% and 27%, respectively. Major foreign ETFs are also failing to attract inflows, and Fubon Vietnam ETF has seen net outflows of over TWD 4 billion (more than VND 3,000 billion) since the start of the year. The VN-Index has fallen nearly 110 points (-6%) to around 1,700, amid high interest rates, thinner domestic liquidity and external pressures.

The Nifty snapped an eight-week decline to close marginally higher, but still formed a fresh 52-week low, as the RBI raised rates by 25 basis points and shifted to “calibrated tightening”. Brent crude above $100, higher US bond yields and a weaker rupee kept sentiment under pressure, with FIIs net sellers for an eighth straight week (Rs. 302.94bn) while DIIs bought Rs. 303.13bn to absorb the selling. The index closed the week at 22,520.45, up 0.4%, though it is down 0.44% month-to-date. The analysis expects volatility to persist amid FII selling and global headwinds, with strong domestic buying limiting downside. Investors will watch US and Indian inflation data, US bond yields, Brent prices and US-Iran tensions next week.

VN-Index closed the week at 1,705.91 points, down 1.58% from the previous week. Analysts expect further technical rebounds next week, but say this is not yet enough to confirm a bottom: 1,680–1,700 points is seen as nearby support and 1,715–1,750 points as resistance. Views differ on the next move: KBS warns the index could retest 1,650–1,670 points if selling by blue chips and foreign investors continues, while AseanSC says it must clear 1,715–1,735 points to confirm a bottom. The article suggests investors keep moderate exposure and watch liquidity and the Q3 reporting season, with the disclosure deadline on October 20.

VN-Index rebounded in the last session of the week to regain the 1,700-point level after four consecutive weeks of declines, but Pinetree analyst Nguyen Tan Phong said there is not yet enough evidence that the market has bottomed. Elevated domestic interest rates, inflation pressure from energy prices, exchange-rate pressure, and net selling of more than VND 3,000 billion by foreign investors on HoSE during the week remain key headwinds. Phong expects a technical rebound early next week, with near-term resistance at 1,715–1,750 points, but liquidity has not improved enough and cash flows may diverge ahead of the Q3 earnings reporting deadline on October 20. SGI Capital warns that prolonged high rates could weigh on bad debt, particularly from real estate loans, while very high margin debt is seen as a major market risk.

The article argues that India's economy is caught between strong macro indicators and mounting pressures. GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY27, GST collections rose 14.7% year on year in September 2026 to Rs 2.04 lakh crore, and UPI transactions reached 2,407 crore. However, the monsoon is 12.6% below its long-period average, CPI inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, and India's crude purchase cost reportedly touched $110 per barrel. The Sensex has fallen about 11.89% over 12 months, FIIs sold over Rs 3.04 lakh crore in equities through October 2026, and per capita income is around $2,800. The author questions whether the boom is reaching ordinary households.