News about VNINDEX

VN-Index fell 29.18 points (1.68%) in the October 12-16 week to 1,705.91, its fourth straight weekly decline and down 4.4% year to date. Liquidity weakened, with average market trading value down 27.3% to VND 14,576 billion, while foreign investors net sold VND 3,141 billion in the week and VND 115,503 billion year to date. MBS flagged the 1,650-point zone, the July 2026 bottom, as a key support level to watch for the October 19-23 week. The report cited Q3 GDP growth of 9.95% and Brent crude closing the week at USD 109.86 per barrel, and MBS noted October has the weakest performance of the year. Experts advise choosing stocks based on business results rather than chasing sector rotations.

SGI Capital says Vietnam's macro picture after the first three quarters of 2026 still shows bright spots, but the stock market enters the fourth quarter facing two risks: policy pressure and liquidity risk from margin leverage. After the FTSE upgrade, trading liquidity fell below VND 15,000 billion per session and foreign investors turned to heavy net selling, driven by fears of rising global inflation and interest rates. Margin debt at a historically high level is seen as a risk that could trigger forced-sale pressure as cash demand rises in the fourth quarter. Longer term, Circular 145/2026/TT-BTC, effective 16/11/2026, introduces CCP clearing and removes the 100% cash pre-funding (NPF) requirement for foreign institutional investors, which Hàn Hữu Hậu, CEO of Hy Maxpro, called an important upgrade.

According to PGS.TS. Trần Hoàng Ngân, the State Bank's call to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for tenors of 6 months or more, and lending rates by 1.5–2% per year, is a boost for businesses at year-end. Outstanding credit to the whole economy exceeded 20.72 million billion VND as of October 14, 2026, up 11.44% from end-2025. On October 18, 2026, the SBV issued Official Dispatch No. 9608/NHNN-CSTT directing credit institutions to cut rates and costs, avoid deposit rate hikes and not lower credit standards. Some banks moved quickly: BIDV offered short-term VND loans from 6% per year from October 15, 2026, while Vietcombank committed to cut lending rates by at least 2% per year until year-end.

This technical analysis is based on real-time data up to the close of the October 17, 2026 morning session, showing VN-Index still choppy, with morning volume rising and signaling investor hesitation. The index is retesting its August 2026 low zone of 1,715–1,735 points, which had been broken earlier, while hugging the Lower Band of the Bollinger Bands and MACD staying weak below zero. For HNX-Index, the index is moving sideways with a High Wave Candle, sits below the Bollinger Bands' Middle Band, and its Stochastic Oscillator is crossing down through the signal line. The article sees the short-term outlook as still negative, with risks rising if these indicators weaken further, and notes the signals are for reference only.

Securities stocks have remained weak despite expectations of gains from FTSE Russell's market upgrade and capital market development. According to VietstockFinance, as of 09/10/2026 the sector index was down 23.46% year-to-date, much deeper than the 2.77% decline of VN-Index, and had lost 39.92% over the past year. About 80% of the 43 sector stocks were more than 20% below their recent peaks, a threshold commonly used to define a bear market. Võ Kim Phụng of Chứng khoán Beta said the sector's earnings depend on liquidity, margin lending and interest rates, and that expected gains were priced in earlier; in Q3/2026, average daily trading value on HOSE and HNX fell 58% year-on-year.

Maybank says lending rates may have peaked after a 16 October meeting in which a deputy minister and banks pledged to cut priority-sector lending rates by 150-200 basis points. The State Bank also asked banks to cut deposit rates for 6-month and longer terms by at least 50 basis points, and BIDV, Vietcombank and Agribank pledged 200 basis point loan cuts through the end of 2026. However, reductions will be uneven across sectors, the conditions for the loan packages have not been disclosed, and a sustainable broad decline to a reasonable level of around 7-10% would require lower capital costs across the system. Longer term, based on Maybank's review of past rating upgrades, achieving investment-grade status could cut Vietnam's foreign borrowing costs by 150-250 basis points, and Maybank expects the upgrade to be accelerated in 2027.

MBS says the VN-Index has fallen for four consecutive weeks under pressure from unfavorable seasonality, high interest rates and weakening cash flow. Indonesia's experience shows that transparency, foreign ownership limit (FOL) and liquidity issues can lead to MSCI reclassification and ETF selling pressure. After FTSE Russell upgraded Vietnam to Secondary Emerging Market status, MBS sees maintaining those standards over the long term as harder than meeting them, so institutional and governance reforms must continue. Over the past 10 years the VN-Index has averaged a decline of over 2% in October, and it fell in each October from 2022 to 2025. MBS views the 1,650-point July bottom as notable support and recommends changing trading strategy rather than chasing sector-wide rallies.

On 19/10/2026, Governor Phạm Đức Ấn chaired a meeting with deputy governors, the Association of Banks and leaders of 46 commercial banks on banking operations. He said that as of last weekend, deposit mobilization had grown 11.22% and credit 11.44%, and the VND gap between loans and deposits had narrowed to below 1.5 quadrillion dong from nearly 2 quadrillion. Dispatch No. 9608/NHNN-CSTT requires credit institutions to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for terms of six months or more, and to reduce lending rates by 1.5–2% per year for production, business and priority sectors. Cuts must match each bank's financial capacity, be tied to cost reductions and profit sharing, avoid across-the-board moves, and apply to both existing and new loans.

On 16/10, HOSE moved PLP shares of CTCP Sản xuất và Công nghệ Nhựa Pha Lê from the control list to the trading restriction list. During 12-16/10, the VN-Index lost more than 29 points, with VIC and VHM the biggest drags, while the HNX-Index also declined. The VN-Index rebounded 7.56 points on 16/10 after seven straight losing sessions, but liquidity was weak. On 15/10, foreign investors and securities firms' proprietary trading together net sold over 926 billion VND, while VPB drew net buying of over 218 billion VND. The article also notes that 21 of 22 tracked construction and building-materials stocks have fallen since the start of 2026, against sector growth, and that TCBS (HOSE: TCX) reported Q3/2026 results with quarterly pre-tax profit at a high level.

The State Bank of Vietnam has instructed commercial banks to cut deposit interest rates by at least 0.5 percentage points, according to Dan Tri. Banks must lower listed annual rates for deposits of six months or longer by at least 0.5 points and cut lending rates for production, business and priority sectors by 1.5 to 2 points. They are also directed to steer credit toward science and technology, digital transformation, green development and education, while tightening lending in high-risk areas, particularly real estate. Banks must also mobilize resources, cut operating costs and share profits to help bring down overall interest rates.

Bùi Văn Huy, General Director of FIDT, believes the VN-Index is accumulating around 1,700 points, with a bottom likely forming within about 20 points, most likely as a "flat bottom" rather than a V-shaped recovery. The market P/E is about 13 times forward 2027 earnings, or about 10 times excluding five Vingroup-group stocks. Interest rate pressure remains: the Fed raised rates in September to 3.75–4%, US inflation rose to 3.7%, and Vietnam's CPI rose 5.08% in September, while 12-month deposit rates at many private banks kept climbing. Although GDP grew 9.95% in Q3 2026, he says the market is pricing in the capital cost of that growth, and the biggest risk is a Fed hike stronger than expected.

General Director Bùi Văn Huy of FIDT says the VN-Index's P/E of about 12 times (about 10 times excluding the Vingroup group) looks more attractive, but weak liquidity makes gradual accumulation the more suitable approach. He notes that investors who have not yet deployed capital could test with 20–30% of their planned amount, keeping the rest in deposits or short-term bond funds, while reviewing funds heavily concentrated in a few stocks. FIDT's estimates show Q3 2026 profit growth diverging sharply: residential real estate up 185%, oil and gas up 141%, retail up 90.9%, steel up 40.8%, while construction is seen falling 85.8%. However, excluding Vinhomes (VHM), the remaining residential real estate companies' profits are estimated to fall about 0.4%, indicating that growth is concentrated in large sector leaders.

One month after FTSE Russell upgraded Vietnam to secondary emerging market status, foreign investors net sold on 19 of 20 sessions, with only one net-buy session worth VND 54 billion. Cumulative net selling since Sept. 21 is about VND 24,800 billion (~US$1 billion), and year-to-date it exceeds VND 116,000 billion, close to the 2025 record of VND 125,000 billion. Selling pressure has spread to FPT and PNJ, whose foreign ownership has fallen below 28% and 27%, respectively. Major foreign ETFs are also failing to attract inflows, and Fubon Vietnam ETF has seen net outflows of over TWD 4 billion (more than VND 3,000 billion) since the start of the year. The VN-Index has fallen nearly 110 points (-6%) to around 1,700, amid high interest rates, thinner domestic liquidity and external pressures.

The State Bank of Vietnam has directed commercial banks to cut deposit rates by at least 0.5 percentage points for terms of six months or longer, and to lower lending rates for production, business and priority sectors by 1.5 to 2 percentage points, according to a Dan Tri report. The central bank also asked lenders to direct credit toward key economic projects and priority sectors such as science and technology, digital transformation, green development and education, while tightening lending in high-risk areas, particularly real estate. Banks were further instructed to mobilize resources, cut operating costs, share profits and take coordinated steps to bring down overall interest rates.

VN-Index closed the week at 1,705.91 points, down 1.58% from the previous week. Analysts expect further technical rebounds next week, but say this is not yet enough to confirm a bottom: 1,680–1,700 points is seen as nearby support and 1,715–1,750 points as resistance. Views differ on the next move: KBS warns the index could retest 1,650–1,670 points if selling by blue chips and foreign investors continues, while AseanSC says it must clear 1,715–1,735 points to confirm a bottom. The article suggests investors keep moderate exposure and watch liquidity and the Q3 reporting season, with the disclosure deadline on October 20.

From 19/10/2026, Agribank will cut lending rates by up to 2.0% per year versus its usual rates, focusing on priority sectors and production and business customers. It is also continuing a 70,000 billion VND preferential credit program running from August 2026 to 2028 for small and medium enterprises, priority sectors and new growth drivers, with rates 1–2% per year below its average same-term lending rate. Agribank expects to set aside about 2,000 billion VND to share capital costs. The move follows a State Bank of Vietnam directive dated 18/10/2026 (No. 9608/NHNN-CSTT), which asks credit institutions to cut listed deposit rates by at least 0.5% per year for terms of six months or more and reduce lending rates by 1.5–2% per year for production, business and priority sectors.

According to data from the Tổ chức Hàng hải Quốc tế obtained by TASS, 22 vessels reported being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz from October 1 to 13. The estimated count surpassed the total for all of March 2026, the previous record. The attacks left 15 sailors injured, 2 missing, and 1 ship sunk. October 11 saw the most incidents, with 6 vessels reporting damage, while on October 4 and 13, three vessels each reported damage. The backdrop: the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, 2026. In June 2026, the two sides signed a memorandum for an immediate ceasefire, but on the night of July 8, the Pentagon resumed large-scale strikes on Iran, accusing it of violating agreements related to the Strait of Hormuz.

The deputy prime minister urged the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to swiftly cut lending rates by 1.5–2 percentage points for production, business and government-prioritized sectors, while keeping financial stability and inflation under control. The push comes as the average lending rate reached 10.7% in August, up 0.2 percentage points from July and around three percentage points from a year earlier; personal loans reached 17–18%, and some banks' deposit rates neared 10%. Small and medium-sized businesses said they still struggle to access preferential credit, and one food business owner repaid a 9–10% loan but was quoted 13–14% for a new one. The government also ordered tighter supervision over bad debts, risky real estate lending, cross-ownership and banking misconduct, requiring banks to publicly disclose lending rates and facing penalties for noncompliance. BIDV launched short-term dong loans from six percent a year on October 15, and Vietcombank pledged to cut lending rates by at least two percentage points a year through the end of 2026.

VN-Index rebounded in the last session of the week to regain the 1,700-point level after four consecutive weeks of declines, but Pinetree analyst Nguyen Tan Phong said there is not yet enough evidence that the market has bottomed. Elevated domestic interest rates, inflation pressure from energy prices, exchange-rate pressure, and net selling of more than VND 3,000 billion by foreign investors on HoSE during the week remain key headwinds. Phong expects a technical rebound early next week, with near-term resistance at 1,715–1,750 points, but liquidity has not improved enough and cash flows may diverge ahead of the Q3 earnings reporting deadline on October 20. SGI Capital warns that prolonged high rates could weigh on bad debt, particularly from real estate loans, while very high margin debt is seen as a major market risk.