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- Affirm Falls 10% as Inflation Print Lifts Yields; Klarna Drops 3%, PayPal Barely Budges
Affirm (AFRM) fell 10% to $69.99 in afternoon trading after a hotter-than-expected inflation report lifted long-term Treasury yields. Its funding model, which relies on warehouse credit facilities, asset-backed securitizations and forward-flow loan sales, means its borrowing costs track market rates closely. By contrast, Klarna (KLAR, down 3%) is funded mostly by low-cost consumer deposits, and PayPal (PYPL, down 0.4%) earns mainly from transaction fees. In Q3 FY2026, Affirm lifted revenue 32.6% to $1.04 billion and GMV 35% to $11.6 billion, though 30-day-plus delinquencies rose to 2.8%. Klarna's Q2 2026 revenue rose 26.6% to $1.042 billion but it lowered its full-year GMV outlook, while PayPal's revenue grew 4.8% to $8.68 billion. The key question for Affirm is whether it can reprice loans fast enough to protect margins without losing merchants and shoppers, with $1.35 billion in net cash serving as a buffer.
- Balance of payments and external debt – August 2026
- Economists warn Lithuania 2027 budget risks rising debt and deficit
Economists warned on Friday that Lithuania's draft 2027 budget will widen the deficit and raise public debt, while several revenue targets look ambitious. Spending is rising faster than nominal GDP, driven by social benefits, public-sector pay and automatic indexation, and the proposed 150 million euro family support package has been questioned. Excise revenue is projected to rise 11% and VAT about 7.2%, with 158 million euros of the VAT gain attributed to better tax administration, while the 2.1 billion euro corporate tax target is seen as at risk. Public debt is set to rise by 6.5 billion euros in 2027 to 48.2% of GDP by the end of the year, interest payments will climb 370 million euros, and the deficit may exceed the EU's 3% limit, possibly triggering an infringement procedure. The Finance Ministry acknowledges debt could approach 60% of GDP by the end of the medium-term period, as defence spending rises from 2% to 5% of GDP largely through borrowing.
- IMF warns bond yields could see a 'disorderly' spike as debt, inflation risks worsen
The IMF warned that government bond yields could spike in a disorderly way as rising inflation, mounting debt and AI-related borrowing pressure sovereign bond markets. Yields in several advanced economies have reached multidecade highs, driven partly by higher energy costs from the Middle East conflict, and global public debt is near its highest level since World War II. Hyperscalers’ share of global investment-grade bond issuance has risen to 10% from less than 1% since 2024, while hedge funds’ share of U.S. Treasuries rose to about 9% in 2025 from about 4% in 2022, which the IMF says leaves the market susceptible to a disorderly unwind. The fund also flagged “circular” AI financing: 14 disclosed deals since 2023 channeled about $300 billion of equity and $650 billion of debt, in exchange for $1.4 trillion of future revenue commitments.
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- JPMorgan's JPM Coin, representing dollar deposits, is coming to Ethereum: Bloomberg
JPMorgan will make JPM Coin, a token representing its dollar deposits, available to institutional clients on Ethereum, according to Bloomberg. The bank says Ethereum's liquidity makes it attractive to crypto companies seeking blockchain payments and to financial firms settling trades or backing tokenized assets. The move extends JPMorgan's blockchain work beyond Base and its private Kinexys network, which processes more than $7 billion daily. The bank did not say when the token will go live on Ethereum. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is among US banks planning a shared tokenized deposit network, but it was not on Swift's list of 17 banks preparing live transactions on its blockchain ledger in July.
- Cerrado Gold Reports 21% Year-Over-Year Increase in Q3 2026 Production Results at Minera Don Nicolas
Cerrado Gold reported Q3 2026 production of 16,685 GEO at the Minera Don Nicolas (MDN) mine in Santa Cruz Province, Argentina, up 21% from 13,832 GEO in Q3 2025. Year-to-date output reached 44,942 GEO, up 23% from 36,432 GEO in the comparable 2025 period. Heap leach output held steady at 9,649 GEO, while CIL output rose to 7,036 GEO as higher-grade Calandrias material, generally above 2.5 g/t gold, was routed to the Martinetas mill. Laboratory tests on selected material showed gold recoveries of up to 95%, versus about 60% expected from heap leaching, and the company now expects full-year 2026 production at the upper end of its 50,000 to 60,000 GEO guidance while targeting a new PEA by late Q1 2027.
- Is Visa Stock Still a Buy After Gaining 14% This Year?
Visa shares hit an all-time high of $401, up about 12% over the past two weeks from $359 at the end of September and up 14% year to date. Key catalysts include approval from the People's Bank of China to set up a bankcard clearing institution in China and the move of Visa Direct's stablecoin to commercial deployment on Oct. 15. Baird and BMO Capital both raised their price targets. Visa reports fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Oct. 27 and has raised its dividend every year since 2009, last year by 14% to $0.67 per share. The author still considers the stock a buy ahead of earnings, citing a forward P/E of 24.
- Five things to watch in markets in the week ahead
Markets start the week with AI stocks under pressure after hotter-than-expected September inflation raised expectations of higher US rates and fed worries about debt-funded AI spending. Last week the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 11.41% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.48%, with CoreWeave shedding about a quarter of its value and Oracle down 9.31%. Earnings are in focus, with SpaceX and Netflix reporting on Tuesday and Meta and Tesla on Wednesday after the close. Netflix reportedly plans to cut around 6% of its workforce, roughly 1,000 roles, its biggest reduction since 2022. SpaceX has also agreed to buy spectrum licenses from Grain Management for about $8 billion, a move into the wireless market.
- eMemory/PUFsecurity Showcases OCP S.A.F.E.-Approved PUFrt at OCP Global Summit, Strengthening AI Data Center Security with Caliptra
PUFsecurity, a subsidiary of eMemory Technology, was featured at Microsoft's Caliptra Workshop on Oct. 12, the opening day of the 2026 OCP Global Summit, which drew nearly 400 attendees. Its PUFrt received OCP S.A.F.E. Scope 3 approval after an independent assessment of its resistance to physical attacks such as fault injection and side-channel attacks, and is now listed on the OCP Marketplace. PUFrt provides the physical security foundation for Caliptra, an open-source hardware Root-of-Trust architecture, from key generation to chip mass-production testing. It has already been integrated into Caliptra products from ASPEED and security systems from several memory makers and networking chip vendors. The company says the milestone advances hardware security for cloud and AI infrastructure.
- Crypto vault deposits top $10 billion as lending risks draw regulatory scrutiny
Deposits into crypto lending vaults have risen from $4 billion at the start of last year to more than $10 billion, according to the Financial Times. Each vault is run by a 'curator' who selects lending strategies through smart contracts on DeFi platforms, sets risk limits and collects fees, with typical returns of 3% to 10% and riskier strategies reaching 20% or more. Risks include illiquid or hard-to-sell collateral, automatic liquidations, hacks and coding errors, while investors may focus on headline yields. Fintechs, digital asset treasury firms and hedge funds are among the main depositors, and Bitcoin lender Two Prime launched a vault on Pareto targeting 1.5% to 2% yields, with a minimum deposit of 5 WBTC and about $10 million of its own capital absorbing initial losses. U.S. and European regulators are examining whether existing rules should apply, and the SEC has questioned vaults that hold securities.
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