Brazil's Ibovespa fell 1.06% on Thursday, and the real lost 1.4% to 5.0969 reais per dollar. Prediction markets price an 83.5% chance of a quarter-point Selic cut at the 3–4 November Copom meeting, and today's key domestic test is the August IBC-Br activity index, due at 09:00 BRT with a consensus estimate of 0.3% versus a prior -0.2%. A strong reading could challenge that rate-cut bet, while a weak one would reinforce it. No verified B3 corporate event is on the calendar, so macro positioning is expected to drive the early session. The Datafolha poll giving Flávio Bolsonaro 49% to Lula's 45% for the 25 October runoff also keeps politics a swing factor for risk appetite.
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