Canada holds roughly US$426 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, up more than 300% from US$106 billion in 2021, and is on track to pass China as a top-three holder before 2028. Part of this reflects Canadian investors buying more as yields rose, but the data counts all Treasuries held in Canada-domiciled accounts regardless of owner, so some experts suspect China is using Canadian accounts as intermediaries. Official Chinese holdings have fallen about 40% to barely US$600 billion from over US$1 trillion in 2021, yet China is widely believed to use intermediaries such as Belgium. Bank of Montreal's Doug Porter expects Canada to surpass Belgium and China within 18 months, and says China is still investing in Treasuries through other avenues. Such activity is probably not illegal, but China's classification of reserve adjustments as state secrets makes it hard to verify.
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