Palantir went public via a direct listing on Sept. 30, 2020, and a $1,000 investment at its earliest trading price of $10 would be worth about $19,400 today. Revenue grew at a 31% CAGR from 2021 to 2025, and the company turned profitable in 2023 before EPS grew at a 165% CAGR over the following two years. Analysts expect revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 59% and 70% from 2025 to 2028, yet the stock trades at 91 times next year's earnings. The article's scenario assumes EPS grows 30% a year for 13 years after 2028 and the stock trades at 50 times forward earnings in 2040, implying a price of $4,710, which would turn $19,400 into about $471,400. The author cautions that these rosy estimates should be taken with a grain of salt.
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