CREA has updated its forecasts, now projecting 444,530 home sales via Canadian MLS® Systems in 2026, down 5.2% from 2025, mainly due to higher fixed mortgage rates and uncertainty about variable rates. The national average home price is forecast to rise 0.2% to $681,681 in 2026, as declines of 0.8% in British Columbia and 3% in Ontario are offset by gains elsewhere, led by Newfoundland and Labrador (+5.7%) and Saskatchewan (+5%). For 2027, sales are expected to climb 4.4% to 464,235 units and the average price to rise 1.2% to $689,909. The forecast assumes limited Bank of Canada action over the next year, even though markets have priced in approximately 100 basis points of rate hikes.
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CREA has updated its forecasts, now expecting 444,530 residential properties to change hands via MLS systems in 2026, a 5.2% drop from 2025. The downgrade reflects higher fixed mortgage rates after the Iran conflict and uncertainty over variable rates, and it applies to every province except Newfoundland and Labrador. The national average home price is forecast to rise 0.2% to $681,681 in 2026, with declines of 0.8% in British Columbia and 3% in Ontario offset by gains elsewhere. For 2027, sales are projected to climb 4.4% to 464,235 units and the average price to reach $689,909, up 1.2%, based on the assumption of limited Bank of Canada action over the next year.
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- CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year – Winnipeg Free Press
CREA has downgraded its 2026 home sales forecast for the third straight quarter, now expecting 444,530 sales this year, down 5.2% from 2025, compared with a July forecast of a 1.4% decline. The national average home price is projected to rise 0.2% to $681,681, about $5,000 lower than predicted in the summer. In September, national home sales fell 7.7% year over year and 2.3% from August, the national average sale price dropped 1.6% to $666,538, and CREA's home price index declined 3.4% year over year. Senior economist Shaun Cathcart said many markets stepped back after four months of modest progress, following a jump in fixed mortgage rates and widespread expectations of a Bank of Canada rate hike before year-end.
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