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IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices, as grain prices have risen significantly over the past six to seven months because of fertilizer costs. The U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drove fertilizer prices up this year, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino effects add further risk. The IMF's updated outlook projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, with growth at 4.5% in both years. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict started, raising borrowing costs for African countries, and Zeidane said China is now the largest trading partner in almost every African country.
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