News about sub-Saharan Africa

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that sub-Saharan African economies could face worsening food insecurity if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. He said grain prices have risen significantly over the past six or seven months because of higher fertilizer prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino weather add further risk to output. According to the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook Update, median regional inflation is projected to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, while growth is forecast at 4.5 percent for both 2026 and 2027. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict began, raising borrowing costs for African countries. Zeidane also noted that Asian countries, especially China, have become increasingly important trading partners and financiers for Africa.

IMF African Department director Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices, as grain prices have risen significantly over the past six to seven months because of fertilizer costs. The U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drove fertilizer prices up this year, while attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and possible El Nino effects add further risk. The IMF's updated outlook projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, with growth at 4.5% in both years. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 100 basis points since the conflict started, raising borrowing costs for African countries, and Zeidane said China is now the largest trading partner in almost every African country.

IMF official Zeine Zeidane warned that food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa could worsen if new shocks keep pushing up food prices. Fertilizer prices rose sharply this year due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, while attacks on grain shipments in the Black Sea and El Nino could further reduce agricultural output. The IMF projects median inflation in the region to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 5.0 percent in 2027, with growth at 4.5 percent in both 2026 and 2027. The IMF update notes that high interest burdens, low reserves and falling aid leave little room to absorb another shock, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have risen more than 100 basis points since the conflict began. The IMF supports nearly 20 countries and is in ongoing discussions with about 10 others on potential new programs.

An IMF official warned that sub-Saharan African economies could face worse food insecurity if new shocks keep driving up food prices, which have risen significantly over six or seven months partly because of fertilizer costs tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Zeine Zeidane, director of the IMF's African Department, also cited Black Sea grain shipment attacks and possible El Niño effects, and said the IMF's update calls for a tightening bias in monetary policy to control inflation. The update projects median regional inflation rising from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, with growth at 4.5% in both years. It warns that high interest burdens, low reserves and falling aid leave little room to absorb another shock, and that U.S. 10-year Treasury yields up more than 100 basis points since the conflict began keep borrowing costs high.