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Original headline: EURGBP Hits New Multi - Month Low - ActionForex
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Related tickers and likely impact
EUR/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 1.12376 |
| Change that session | +0.22% |
GBP/USD
• NeutralRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/20/2026 | 1.33800 |
| Change that session | +0.57% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- ECB Fixing Shows Euro Down 0.24% Against Pound on Oct. 21
The European Central Bank's daily reference rate put the euro at 0.83825 pounds on 21 October, down from 0.84028 the previous day, a decline of about 0.24%; the figure is a once-daily value, not a live rate. The move came as UK annual CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, with motor fuel prices up 29.8% year on year and core CPI at 2.8%. FXStreet reported EUR/GBP near 0.8390 in early European trading and said a Bank of England rate increase at its next meeting was widely expected, though those intraday observations come from a different time. The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% at its September meeting, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill preferring a rise to 4%, and its next decision is due on 5 November.
- British Pound - to - Euro Forecast : French Riots Push GBP Above 1 . 19
GBP/EUR spiked to fresh 16-month highs just above 1.19 after violent French protests triggered euro selling, before easing to around 1.1880. Consensus expects UK headline inflation to rise to 3.4% from 3.1% and core inflation to 2.8% from 2.6%, and strong expectations point to a Bank of England rate increase to 4.00% at its November meeting. Bank of America's Sonali Punhani argues the bigger pickup in inflation is still ahead, while weaker-than-expected data would raise doubts about a hike. Deutsche Bank, ING and MUFG highlight France's political and fiscal risks, with MUFG noting that the probability of RN leader Le Pen becoming president has risen to around 48% on Polymarket and expecting these risks to weigh on the euro into next year. Investors are also watching the UK jobs report on Tuesday and inflation data on Wednesday.
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Sterling was on track for a third straight weekly gain against the euro, with the single currency under pressure after the French bond selloff at the start of the month. The pound hit its highest level against the dollar in more than three weeks on Friday and was set to end a four-week losing streak. Britain's economy beat forecasts in August, with a further jump in computer programming showing AI is boosting growth. Finance minister John Healey said his first budget, due October 29, would offer “a bit of breathing space.” According to LSEG data, markets expect the Bank of England to raise rates by 25 basis points at its November 5 meeting.
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U.S. September inflation came in hotter than expected, briefly lifting the odds of an October FOMC hike to 50%, but officials said there was no urgency to tighten at the next meeting, and the fed funds rate is still expected to stay at 3.75%-4.00% after the October 27-28 meeting. Treasury yields fell to 3-week lows, with the 10-year at 5.0933% and the 30-year at 5.4462%, which the article links to a flight to safety. In France, EU-harmonized inflation rose to 3.4% in September from 2.6% in August, the highest since January 2024, adding to eurozone price concerns. UK GDP unexpectedly rose 0.1% in August, lifting annual growth to 2.1%, and markets expect a 25-basis-point BoE hike on November 5. The DXY, near 102.15, has bounced from 101.93 support but is capped by 102.39 resistance.
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Euro is hovering near a three-month low against the Singdollar, at 1.43 on Wednesday (Oct 21), as political unrest over living costs and public services spreads across Europe. The euro rose 6.76% against the Singdollar in 2025 but has fallen 4.8% so far in 2026. Julius Baer's Mark Matthews attributes much of the weakness to growth gaps, with Europe around 1% versus Singapore around 5%, and to French budget strains and protests that have also spread to Portugal and Italy. CMC Markets sees added pressure from energy costs above 80 euros (US$89.91) per megawatt-hour and 3.8% inflation in September, and says a break below S$1.43 could point to S$1.42 and then S$1.40. OCBC cautions against assuming further declines and forecasts S$1.43 in the first quarter of 2027, while Pictet expects the yuan and Singdollar to be among Asia's most stable currencies.
- UBS sees EUR / USD recovering as markets turn too pessimistic on Europe | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
UBS expects the euro to recover to $1.16 by the end of 2026, arguing that its slide from $1.17 to nearly $1.11 against the dollar has gone further than Europe's economy justifies and that markets are excessively pessimistic on Europe. The decline reflects stronger US economic data, worries about a possible US diesel export ban, rising global bond yields and concern over France's finances, with French spreads widening significantly. UBS does not expect a broader European debt crisis and sees a French budget deal as likely, which should narrow those spreads. Markets have almost fully priced out a US rate hike in October, making a sustained fall below $1.10 less likely, and UBS sees support at $1.10 and $1.08 with resistance at $1.13. A Democratic win of both the House and Senate in the midterms would likely be a modest negative for the dollar, a risk not reflected in market pricing.
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