GBP/EUR spiked to fresh 16-month highs just above 1.19 after violent French protests triggered euro selling, before easing to around 1.1880. Consensus expects UK headline inflation to rise to 3.4% from 3.1% and core inflation to 2.8% from 2.6%, and strong expectations point to a Bank of England rate increase to 4.00% at its November meeting. Bank of America's Sonali Punhani argues the bigger pickup in inflation is still ahead, while weaker-than-expected data would raise doubts about a hike. Deutsche Bank, ING and MUFG highlight France's political and fiscal risks, with MUFG noting that the probability of RN leader Le Pen becoming president has risen to around 48% on Polymarket and expecting these risks to weigh on the euro into next year. Investors are also watching the UK jobs report on Tuesday and inflation data on Wednesday.
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Related tickers and likely impact
EUR/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: low
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/19/2026 | 1.12125 |
| Change that session | -0.24% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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