Fewer people are flying in 2026, with U.S. checkpoint screenings on track for their first annual decline since 2020, yet airlines say higher fares matter more than full planes. Jet fuel costs, their biggest expense after labor, have pushed fares up more than 22% year over year in September. American's load factor fell to 83.4% in the third quarter from 86% a year earlier, and the airline said it is prioritizing yield over load factor. Southwest's average fare rose close to $50 to $231.69 in the third quarter, while its passenger count fell 3.2% to about 33.5 million, though both beat its expectations. United's unit revenue rose 16% and its passengers rose 2.4%, but American, United, Delta and Southwest all cut their 2026 profit forecasts.
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- Fewer people are flying as airfare soars. Here's why airlines aren't worried
The number of people screened at US airport checkpoints is on track for its first annual decline since 2020, but major carriers say prioritizing higher fares matters more than filling seats. American's load factor fell to 83.4% in the third quarter from 86% a year earlier, while September fares rose more than 22% year over year as airlines pass fuel costs on to customers. Southwest's average third-quarter fare was $231.69, up nearly $50, even though its passenger count fell 3.2% to about 33.5 million. Since April, about 9.3 million fewer people have been screened than in the same period of 2025, a drop of less than 2%, and American, United, Delta and Southwest have all cut their 2026 profit forecasts. Bank of America said some customers of Spirit Airlines, which went out of business in early May, have likely stopped flying.
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American Airlines fell about 4% to $11.72 after reporting record Q3 2026 revenue of $16.34 billion and an adjusted loss of $0.28 per share, smaller than the $0.33 expected. Its outlook worsened, with a full-year adjusted loss now forecast at $1 to $1.60 per share, replacing July guidance that ranged from a $0.65 loss to a $0.65 profit. The Q4 plan assumes jet fuel at $4.70 a gallon, after Q3 jet fuel costs rose 67.5% to $4.63 billion as the average price climbed to $3.85 from $2.37. Premium revenue grew 22.9% and managed corporate sales 27.6%, but the airline carries $29.6 billion in debt and finance leases against a $4.2 billion stockholders' equity deficit. Delta and United Airlines, exposed to the same fuel market, fell about 3%.
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Southwest Airlines became the third major U.S. airline this month to cut its 2026 profit forecast due to higher fuel prices, though CEO Bob Jordan said travelers keep booking despite higher fares. The carrier now expects adjusted earnings of $2.60 to $2.85 per share this year, down from its July forecast of $3.25 to as much as $4.25. In the third quarter, adjusted EPS was 66 cents versus 58 cents expected, and adjusted revenue was $8.42 billion against $8.25 billion. It forecasts fourth-quarter EPS of 55 to 80 cents and unit revenue up as much as 21% from a year earlier. Its average fare rose almost 27% to $231.69, while revenue passengers fell 3.2% to 33.47 million.
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- Alaska Air ( ALK ) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
Alaska Air Group posted third-quarter 2026 revenue of $4.3 billion, up 14%, but a GAAP net loss of $147 million, or $1.32 per share, as fuel prices added $1.8 billion in costs for the year. Adjusted net income was $40 million (adjusted EPS $0.36), excluding special items and a revised tax-rate methodology. Unit revenue rose 11.7%, premium revenue grew 24.5%, and managed corporate revenue increased 30%, while diversified revenue reached 54% of the total mix. For the fourth quarter, the company guided to an adjusted loss of $2.00 to $2.50 per share, with fuel averaging $4.65 to $4.85 per gallon, and a full-year adjusted loss of $5.00 to $5.50 per share. Alaska is also expanding international service from Seattle to Osaka and Papeete, targets 15 international routes by 2030, and plans to join Atlantic and Pacific joint international businesses.
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