Eli Lilly's Foundayo, an oral GLP-1 weight-loss medicine approved in the U.S. in April, is drawing new patients, with 80% of its prescriptions earlier this year going to people who had never taken a GLP-1 medicine before. The company's Onswik, a once-weekly basal insulin for diabetes approved in September, could strengthen its diabetes portfolio, though Novo Nordisk's Awiqli was approved first in March. The investigational retatrutide showed average weight loss of up to 28.3% over 80 weeks in one Phase 3 study, and Eli Lilly plans to submit it for regulatory approval in the first quarter of 2027. The article argues these drugs could power Eli Lilly's next phase of growth beyond Zepbound.
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Eli Lilly tested tirzepatide (the active ingredient in Zepbound) combined with eloralintide, an experimental drug targeting the amylin hormone rather than GLP-1. After 48 weeks, the combination produced weight loss of up to 23.3%, versus 14.8% with tirzepatide alone and 12.3% with eloralintide alone. However, discontinuation rates due to side effects reached as high as 27%, though Lilly’s Ken Custer noted that high discontinuation was also seen with tirzepatide in a mid-stage trial and that dosing can matter. The author views the results as a net positive but flags a steep valuation, with a market cap above $1 trillion and the stock trading near 40 times trailing earnings after rising around 10% this year.
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Eli Lilly's exploratory Phase 3b TOGETHER-PsO data showed that combining Taltz with Zepbound in adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and obesity or overweight changed far more immune and metabolic biomarkers than Taltz alone, with broader responses emerging as early as Week 12. The findings point to a possible immunometabolic link between psoriasis and obesity, which could let Lilly pair its immunology and obesity portfolios. The article says the data does not materially change the near-term focus on obesity and diabetes volumes or the risks from GLP-1 pricing pressure and litigation. It also cites Phase 2b EloraTZP results combining eloralintide with tirzepatide. The article's investment narrative projects $118.9 billion in revenue and $50.1 billion in earnings by 2029, implying a fair value of $1,329, about 12% above the current price.
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Eli Lilly has seen its stock rise more than 300% over five years, driven by demand for GLP-1 drugs such as Mounjaro and Zepbound, and reached record levels above $1,200 in recent months, now trading above $1,160. The article explains that stock splits increase the number of shares and lower the price per share, making stocks accessible to more investors without changing a company's fundamentals. Lilly has completed four splits, but the most recent was nearly 30 years ago, and its shares have advanced 25% over the past six months, coinciding with the launch of its GLP-1 pill Foundayo. Lilly is the U.S. market leader with a 60% share in a GLP-1 market expected to reach nearly $100 billion by the end of the decade, and the author considers a split announcement quite possible.
- Eli Lilly Stock Has Pulled Back 8%. History Says This Is What Happens Next.
Eli Lilly (LLY) shares have pulled back about 8% in recent weeks, after rising 41% over the past 12 months. The article attributes the decline mainly to investors taking profits after a 50% gain in less than four months that pushed the stock to an all-time high in August. U.S. prices for its products fell 3% year over year due to Zepbound and Mounjaro, or 9% excluding rebates and discounts, and the stock trades at 38.6 times trailing earnings versus 23.6 for the S&P 500. The author argues that overwhelming demand for these drugs will keep sales rising, and that over the past 10 years the stock fell by at least 8% more than 20 times yet still returned more than 14x. Of 23 analysts rating the stock over the last three months, 20 recommend buy or better, with a consensus target implying around 16% upside.
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- Can Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Growth Machine Keep Delivering?
Eli Lilly (LLY) returned 36.37% over the six months to October 15, compared with 21.5% for the Insider Monkey Billionaire Index and 15.74% for the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. Mounjaro and Zepbound still drive most growth, while Lilly is expanding with the oral obesity drug Foundayo, international markets and treatments beyond obesity, and is investing an additional $4.5 billion in its Indiana facilities. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue rose 48% on a 60% increase in volume, but realized prices fell 13%, partly due to lower international prices, while immunology, oncology and neuroscience products grew 121% combined. LLY trades at 38.64x trailing and 24.39x forward earnings, with forecasts pointing to earnings roughly doubling from last year to next year. The article also flags risks including pricing pressure, heavy spending on production, research and acquisitions, and significant acquired R&D charges in the second quarter.
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