A global diesel shortage is pushing some major refiners toward record profits, even as higher fuel prices raise transport costs, inflation and pressure on households and businesses. The Guardian investigation, citing International Energy Agency warnings, says supply has fallen by about one million barrels a day compared with 2025 after refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia and restrictions on Chinese exports. TotalEnergies' refining and chemicals income more than quadrupled to $1.8 billion from April to June, and Shell expects refining margins near $42 per barrel for July–September, up from $24. The IEA says the shortage could last into 2027 and that the push for more diesel could later create a surplus and shift the next shortage to petrol.
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