Stanford economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh argue in an NBER working paper that California's proposed one-time 5% tax on billionaire wealth could raise far less than projected and ultimately reduce state revenue. Seven billionaires, including Peter Thiel, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, have publicly left the state, removing about $540 billion, or 30%, of California's billionaire wealth from potential taxation. The authors estimate the measure could generate only about $30 billion, versus the $100 billion projected by proponents, while losing $1 billion to $3.5 billion a year in income tax revenue could leave the state about $39 billion worse off in present-value terms if those losses persist. The measure, Proposition 40, goes to voters next month, and a Citrin-Politico poll found 46% of likely voters in favor and 43% opposed. Supporters, including Nobel laureates Daron Acemoglu and Joseph Stiglitz, argue the tax will fund health care and that California has attracted more venture funding since the proposal was announced.
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• NeutralAlphabet Inc. (Class A)
Relevance: low
| Market | US stocks |
|---|---|
| Sector | Communication Services |
| Industry | Interactive Media & Services |
| Market cap | $4.3T |
| Close on 10/16/2026 | 340.59 |
| Change that session | -2.47% |
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