IBM shares are down 13.34% year-to-date in 2026 while the dividend kept rising, with the stock yielding 2.66% at $251.56. Free cash flow covered the 2025 dividend about 2.4 times ($14.73 billion against $6.255 billion), and in the first nine months of 2026 it reached about $8 billion, up 8%, roughly 1.7 times the $4.8 billion paid in dividends. Total debt climbed to $63.8 billion, up $2.6 billion this year, largely from $11.4 billion of acquisitions in 2026 after $8.3 billion in 2025. Annual recurring revenue reached $24.9 billion, up 8%, and cash was $11.1 billion. The article judges the dividend still one of the safest in tech, but warns that if debt-funded deals keep pushing debt up while free cash flow growth slows, coverage and room for future increases will shrink.
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