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According to BOFIT, the global economy has kept growing faster than forecasters expected despite the Iran war and energy supply disruptions, as countries used alternative oil routes and drew down national inventories. AI investment, especially in the US and in chip-exporting East Asian economies such as Taiwan, South Korea and China, has also supported growth. The IMF this week slightly raised its global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, and the IMF, OECD and ADB all expect China to grow around 4.5 percent this year. Russia's outlook has been revised down, with BOFIT forecasting about 1 percent this year and half a percent next year. Most risks are on the downside, particularly if the Middle East crisis depletes energy inventories or demand for AI computing capacity fades.
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Anthropic reportedly told investors at a private day that its revenue reached $16.8 billion for the three months ended Sept. 30, up 50% quarter over quarter, and that it was cash-flow positive and adjusted-profitable. That growth is slower than the 140% gain seen between the first and second quarters, and Jefferies had reportedly expected an annual revenue run rate of at least $80 billion. The company has delayed its IPO registration statement twice amid AI safety concerns and very heavy infrastructure spending. A Saxo Markets strategist says a valuation above $2 trillion would be about 30 times annualized Q3 revenue, making valuation the main debate. The article argues investors are now asking tougher questions about funding, cost of capital and returns, so these results may not impress them much.
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