City economists argue financial markets are wrong to price in a rise of a full percentage point or more in Bank of England rates by next summer. Market-implied expectations point to the bank rate rising from 3.75% today to 4.75% by the end of July, possibly reaching 5% by December 2027. James Smith of ING and Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank both see that path as unlikely, with Raja estimating that only about 50bps of hikes is priced in once risk premia are removed. Deutsche Bank expects the rate at 4.25% by next February, while Oxford Economics forecasts 25bps rises in November and February. The BoE is widely expected to lift rates to 4% on 5 November, after UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September.
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Related tickers and likely impact
GBP/USD
▼ Likely negativeRelevance: medium
| Market | Currencies |
|---|---|
| Close on 10/23/2026 | 1.33804 |
| Change that session | -0.15% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
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