Traders are betting oil prices will stay elevated through 2028, with Brent futures for December 2027 up more than 13% since early September to $86 a barrel. The IEA projects global supply will rise from 100.7m bpd this year to 108.3m bpd in 2027, implying a surplus that would normally weigh on prices, yet rising long-dated futures suggest investors doubt the recovery will fully materialise or last. Oil flows through Hormuz have nearly returned to pre-war levels, but Iran has intensified attacks on vessels and Houthi strikes have hit Saudi Arabia, including Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran. Logistics, freight, insurance and military protection now account for nearly a third of the cost of moving a barrel out of the Gulf, up from 3% before the war. European diesel futures hit a record $1,480 per tonne, about $210 a barrel, in mid-September.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on gdnonline.com ↗
Related news
- Oil shocks, El Niño may threaten Philippine economic recovery in 2027: World Bank
The World Bank projects Philippine growth of 5.2% in 2027 and 5.5% in 2028, after a slowdown to an expected 3.7% this year. Recovery hinges on public investment picking up from the fourth quarter, which could restore business and household confidence and draw in private investment. Growth reached 2.6% in the first half, while inflation rose to 7.2% in September from 6.1% in August, ending four straight months of easing and staying above the BSP's 3% target; the World Bank expects 5.8% average inflation this year. Key risks include energy price shocks, climate disruptions worse than expected from a potentially record El Niño (already affecting 223,214 farmers in 14 regions, with P6.87 billion in agricultural damage as of September 26), and weaker-than-expected investment.
- International Business : Lagarde likely to lead World Economic Forum
The World Economic Forum (WEF) could appoint Christine Lagarde as its next chair as soon as next month, according to four people close to the organisation cited by Reuters. If so, she would step down early from her European Central Bank (ECB) role, which was scheduled to end in October 2027, and trigger a wider reshuffle at the ECB's top ranks. Leaving early would let EU leaders choose a new ECB president before France's spring presidential election, which polls suggest the far-right could win. The WEF board, which includes Lagarde, was due to meet on November 2 and could elect her, but no final decision has been made and the outcome is not certain. Sources said she has broad board support, and the ECB declined to comment.
- International Business: IMF chief urges co-operation on AI and war risks
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva urged international cooperation to tackle multiple risks, including rapid AI advances and a prolonged Middle East war, at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. The IMF slightly raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1%, well below the historical average, while warning of risks from a potential end to the AI investment boom, rising debt and the Middle East conflict. The Fund said that without the US-Israeli-led war against Iran and Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which caused a major energy shock, AI would have fuelled much stronger growth. US Treasury Under Secretary Erin Browne pushed back, citing record US stock highs and strong US output, and urged the IMF to take a more balanced view.
- International Business: Global stocks edge lower as dollar heads for weekly loss
Global stocks edged lower after a tech-led selloff, while the dollar was on track for its first weekly decline after four weeks of gains. Concerns over higher rates and AI-related financing hit technology and chip stocks, with the S&P 500 down 0.61% and the Nasdaq down 1.3%. CoreWeave shares dropped 9% on the day and were set for a near 23% weekly loss. Indonesian equities had their biggest drop since 1998 after MSCI said the country no longer merited emerging-market status. Brent rose 0.85% to $106.83 a barrel amid attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, and gold gained 0.17% to about $4,177.14 an ounce.
- International Business: Global stocks and dollar slide
Tech stocks sold off sharply, dragging global equities and the dollar lower as crowded bets on AI plays faced high and rising interest rates. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted their biggest one-day drop since July on Wednesday after hotter-than-expected US inflation fuelled expectations of more Fed rate hikes. In Asia, South Korea's KOSPI fell almost 8% in a seventh straight drop, the Nikkei 225 dropped 5%, Samsung Electronics plunged nearly 10%, and SK Hynix and Kioxia each fell more than 11%. TSMC fell 2% despite record profits, and Anthropic's 45% jump in third-quarter revenue failed to lift sentiment. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields swooped toward 5% in their biggest daily drop in more than a year, gold rose 1%, and Fed funds futures priced a 75% probability that the Fed stays on hold at its October 28 meeting.
- International Business : Citi turns hawkish
Citigroup now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in December, after September US consumer inflation came in well above expectations. Citi had been the lone holdout, forecasting no further Fed moves this year, while markets largely priced in a December hike at about 94% probability. The bank expects the Fed to hold rates steady after that increase and does not see rate cuts beginning until June 2027. Inflation accelerated on surging gasoline prices and spread beyond energy, raising concerns that underlying inflation could stay sticky. Futures implied a 47.1% chance of a hike at the October 27-28 meeting, up from roughly 22% before the inflation data.
Related markets
Latest news
- Winning over Vingroup and Sun Group with concrete and special materials: Vietnamese company's profit up 136%, chairman speaks out
Song Da Cao Cuong (SCL) reported Q3/2026 profit of VND 38 billion, up 136%, on net revenue of over VND 263 billion (up nearly 98%), while gross profit margin rose from about 36% to 41%. For the first nine months, revenue reached nearly VND 666 billion (up 81%) and after-tax profit nearly VND 94 billion, already exceeding more than 110% of its full-year profit target. Chairman Kieu Van Mat attributed the results to technology upgrades, production line optimization and capacity expansion, with several new plants expected to start operations by November 2026. The company said it spent more than two years testing its products before Vingroup accepted them; Vingroup's share of its business has fallen to about 25% as customers expanded to around 10 major groups and exports began to Laos, Cambodia and the Philippines. Over the past two years, the company has invested about VND 1,000 billion in factories and technology.
- Coteccons Chairman Bolat Duisenov reveals new direction: expanding home construction for individual customers
At the annual general meeting on October 20, Coteccons (HoSE: CTD) set fiscal 2027 targets of VND 42,000 billion in revenue and VND 1,050 billion in after-tax profit, and said it is considering expanding into residential construction for individual customers (B2C). In fiscal 2026, net revenue reached VND 34,340 billion (up 38%, 115% of plan) and after-tax profit VND 788 billion (up 73%); new contract wins totaled VND 60,307 billion and backlog was about VND 70,000 billion. In the first quarter of the new fiscal year, the company booked revenue of VND 11,270 billion and profit of VND 306 billion, but new contract value of VND 14,519 billion was lower than a year earlier; the company said it is tightening criteria for selecting clients and projects. Coteccons is also working with Microsoft, is expected to become a strategic partner of Workday, and targets raising its ROE from 10% to 15-18% by 2030.
- UPS Yields 6.7% After Firing Amazon. Here's Whether the Dividend Survives 2027.
UPS shares yield 6.7% as of October 16. The company has moved away from high-volume, low-margin Amazon deliveries and froze its dividend earlier this year, ending a 16-year streak of increases. The article says the payout will likely remain frozen through 2026 and 2027, citing competition from 10- and 30-year Treasury yields above 5% and other industrial dividend payers, but calls the dividend's safety questionable: UPS generated $5.47 billion in free cash flow in 2025, with $5.4 billion going to dividends, and free cash flow is projected to fall to $5.05 billion in 2026 and $5.01 billion in 2027, with the dividend absorbing about 98% of 2026 free cash flow. Rising competition and high fuel prices add pressure, and the article suggests investors may find more safety in the industrial sector.
- Asian shares mostly decline after AI stocks lead a rebound on Wall Street
Asian shares mostly fell in cautious trading on Tuesday after AI-related stocks rebounded on Wall Street, while other sectors stayed shaky and oil prices stayed high. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to 64,512.35 in early trading, South Korea's Kospi dropped 2.8%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.8%. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%, helped by Nvidia's 1.4% gain, while most stocks outside AI and tech fell and the Dow slipped 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.14%, and U.S. crude rose to $103.50 a barrel and Brent to $109.47, as uncertainty about when the energy industry will return to normal after the war with Iran means oil is unlikely to ease soon.
- Asian shares mostly decline after AI stocks lead a rebound on Wall Street
Asian shares mostly fell in cautious trading Tuesday after AI-related stocks rebounded on Wall Street, while other sectors stayed shaky and oil prices remained high. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6% to 64,512.35, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.8% to 8,772.10, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 2.8% to 5,605.31. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq rallied 1.1%, helped by Nvidia, while the Dow fell 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.14%, and U.S. crude rose 0.15% to $103.50 a barrel as uncertainty over the war with Iran kept oil prices elevated.
- What Could X-Energy (XE) Gain From Its 960MW Indiana Nuclear Project?
X-Energy (NasdaqGS:XE), American Electric Power and Amazon agreed to assess a 960 MW advanced nuclear project in Indiana using Xe-100 reactors, on a former coal plant site. Under the joint development agreement, Amazon would provide development funding and commit to a long-term power purchase. The article says the deal offers commercial validation for X-Energy's reactor platform rather than immediate financial relief, as the company, with a $4.3b market cap, reported $150.28 million in revenue, a $448.87 million loss, and a 20.2x price-to-sales ratio. The next key milestone is whether the study reaches a final investment decision for the Sullivan County site.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.