The article examines whether USA Rare Earth (USAR) can help the U.S. and its allies secure critical minerals, given China's dominance in rare-earth extraction and processing. China banned rare-earth exports in October 2025 in response to U.S. tariffs and chip restrictions; the ban was later temporarily lifted, though some Chinese companies have canceled U.S. exports, and China has also banned technology exports to USA Rare Earth and MP Materials. USAR shares are down roughly 15% in 2026 and about 74% from their lifetime high last October. Excluding the recently acquired Brazil-based Serra Verde, the company is essentially pre-revenue, though U.S. government supply agreements offer some pricing floor protection. With a market cap of roughly $4 billion and a target of about $1.8 billion in EBITDA for 2030, the author sees a worthwhile risk-reward profile for risk-tolerant investors, while stressing the stock is not low-risk.
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