On the Polymarket prediction market, the odds that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz leaves office by 31 March 2027 fell to 8%, down 10.5 points in 24 hours from about 18.5% on 20 October. The article found no reported trigger for the drop and suggests the earlier price may have been a stale or lopsided trade, while trading remains thin, with that contract's total volume at US$10,933. The political backdrop includes an ARD poll published on 1 October showing satisfaction with Merz at just 10%, the lowest for any chancellor since 1997, and the AfD winning in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the CDU failed to clear the 5% hurdle. Under Article 67 of the Basic Law, the Bundestag can end a government only by electing a successor with a majority of all its members, though a chancellor can also resign, and the next federal election is not due until 2029.
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Original headline: Merz Exit Odds for March 2027 Fall to 8 %
Read the original on riotimesonline.com ↗
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