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Micron and Sandisk Have a History of Cyclicality. Is This Time Different?

The memory chip market has a long history of cyclical swings, which often leads investors to pay less for Sandisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) even when the companies are doing well. The article argues the answer depends on the memory type: NAND products are hard to differentiate, so pricing mostly follows supply and demand, while in DRAM and HBM, Micron has signed a deal with Nvidia to develop a custom HBM solution. Micron and many clients have also signed longer-term deals that set price floors and ceilings through 2030 and 2031, and Sandisk has contracted about 50% of its production volume for its upcoming fiscal year, rising to two-thirds in 2028. The author says the market may start valuing these stocks more like large tech companies. The author adds that both look cheap against the 20–30 times next year's expected earnings typical of big tech, making them smart buys, although reaching that range would require them to triple or quadruple.

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