Micron's stock has surged this year, but the article argues it could crash and take decades to recover, as it did after its 2000 peak. Micron is one of three major DRAM makers, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, which together control over 85% of the DRAM market; last quarter, 73% of its revenue came from DRAM and 26% from NAND. The author estimates less than 10% of revenue comes from high bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI, so the company is highly exposed to falling prices for conventional DRAM and NAND. Rising output from China's CXMT could push those prices down, and the author expects a steep fall in that case, though less severe than in 2000 and with Micron still able to stay profitable. The author says the stock should be avoided for now.
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