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Musk Calls Tesla’s Merger Vote “Quite a High Hurdle.” JPMorgan’s Premium Math Puts the Stock Near $500.

Elon Musk said on SpaceX’s October 20 earnings call that a SpaceX-Tesla merger would need the approval of 50% of all Tesla shares, not just votes cast, and that the two companies’ special committees have not agreed on terms. JPMorgan expects an all-stock deal led by SpaceX at a typical 30% to 35% premium, or about $486 to $505 a share versus Tesla’s $373.71 close. Turnout was about 74% at Tesla’s 2025 annual meeting, so a deal would need roughly two-thirds of votes cast, and a new auto-vote program for retail holders could help but has no public enrollment figures. The article notes that a 30% to 35% premium would push Tesla’s 191.6x forward earnings multiple to about 250x, versus a five-year average of 107.7x. Musk also said there is no guarantee the committees will reach a deal.

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MarketUS stocks
SectorConsumer Discretionary
IndustryAutomobile Manufacturers
Market cap$1.5T
Close on 10/23/2026372.21
Change that session-0.63%
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