Nebius (NBIS) stock is up 103% in 2026 through Wednesday's close, though it has fallen about 23% since Sept. 30 as investors worried about AI cloud companies running on borrowed money, a concern that began at CoreWeave and was amplified by Elon Musk's warning that more than 200 neoclouds face 'guppy-level death and consolidation.' Nebius's second-quarter revenue rose 454% to $582.3 million as reported in August, and contracts with Microsoft and Meta, plus a new Palantir sales channel, support its borrowing capacity. Analysts expect capex to reach $29.1 billion in 2027 and net debt of about $34 billion by the end of that year, though more than $9 billion of prepayments is expected this year. The stock traded at about 6.5x forward sales on Oct. 27, down from 13x at the end of June, and the author says this valuation suits investors who can sit through big swings, provided the third-quarter report shows customers still paying up front. The author also flags dilution and depreciation, which still topped adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter, as ongoing concerns.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Original headline: Nebius Is Up 103% in 2026 Despite Musk’s “Guppy-Level Death” Warning: Take Profits, or Buy More?
Read the original on Yahoo Finance ↗
Keywords
cloud computingdata centersNebiusElon Musk
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related news
- Why Nebius Stock Fell 26% in a Month, and What It Means for Investors
Nebius Group (NBIS) shares have lost roughly a quarter of their value in a month, as investors question whether specialized AI cloud providers, or neoclouds, can earn attractive returns on the heavy spending needed to expand data centers. The article says this is not a prediction that Nebius will fail, but the company must show its advantages are durable enough to justify the resources it commits. Gartner has warned that more than 80% of neocloud providers may no longer operate independently by 2030, intensifying concerns about competition and consolidation. Nebius must fund infrastructure before generating revenue, and both borrowing and new share issuance carry costs, with CoreWeave's bond yields rising to almost 15%. Key indicators to watch include revenue growth and customer commitments, capital spending and dilution, and the payback period of new contracts, which management has said could be under two years.
- Nebius is The Neocloud Smart Enough to Not Get Caught in The Race to The Bottom
Nebius said it can sell its entire planned 2027 capacity on existing midterm contract terms and chose to hold some back, with midterm deals at $20 million to $25 million per megawatt and short-term deals under negotiation at $40 million to $50 million per megawatt. Q2 revenue rose 454.0% to $582.3M, group adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 41% from 32%, and remaining performance obligations stand at $37.5B. Nebius reports $17.62B in liabilities against $10.34B in equity, while the author notes CoreWeave's leverage ratio of 8.94. Risks include a Q2 GAAP net loss of $190.4M, 2026 capex guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion, and shares sold through an at-the-market program. The author accepts these risks because Nebius funds itself first through operating cash flow and customer prepayments.
- Nebius vs. CoreWeave: Which neocloud stock has more debt?
CoreWeave carries $35.1B in debt and $5.5B in cash, while Nebius has $8.5B in debt and $8.0B in cash.
- Nebius Vs. DigitalOcean: The Cash Positive Neocloud Arguably Looks Better
DigitalOcean and Nebius both reported Q2 2026 results: DigitalOcean grew revenue 28.6% and generated $60.59 million in free cash flow, while Nebius grew revenue 454.0% while spending heavily on data centers. DigitalOcean's inference business grew nearly 800% and makes up more than 70% of AI customer ARR, and its pro forma net leverage is 0.7 times after retiring about $472 million of convertible notes. Nebius's first-half capex of $8.13 billion far exceeded $4.50 billion in operating cash flow, so it raised $4.34 billion in convertible securities and $2.0 billion through NVIDIA warrants, and interest expense rose to $119.1 million from $4.8 million. The author says Nebius offers a bigger opportunity but carries greater dilution risk, while DigitalOcean's self-funded growth looks more durable. Both stocks have fallen more than 23% in a month.
- Investors are questioning neoclouds' business model but Nebius says AI computing prices are rising
Nebius sees AI computing prices rising more than expected, chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky told CNBC, as investors question the neocloud business model after CoreWeave's borrowing costs spiked. He said Nebius is not carrying the debt CoreWeave has, that its 2027 capacity would sell out if brought online, and that a Tuesday auction showed continued price increases. Crusoe CEO Chase Lochmiller said prices for older Nvidia chips such as A100s and H100s are higher than when they were first deployed. Nebius shares rose after SpaceX reported its AI business revenue jumped to $7.56 billion, with its CFO saying pricing is tracking slightly above the high end of the $30 to $50 per watt range.
- Arista Networks And 2 Fast Growing Insider Stocks
Anthropic and Meta are planning equity offerings worth close to US$200b combined, and the article highlights three fast-growing stocks with high insider ownership from a screen. Arista Networks (market cap US$223.5b) sells cloud and AI networking hardware and EOS software, generating about US$10.5b in revenue; management guides 2026 AI fabrics revenue of US$3.5b to US$3.6b, with Etherlink used by more than 100 customers. Nebius Group (market cap US$42.0b) runs a full-stack AI cloud platform, with about US$1.31b from its Nebius AI Cloud segment, and the article flags that data sovereignty regulation in the U.S., Europe and Israel could raise compliance costs. Mission Produce (market cap US$1.0b) sources, farms and markets avocados, and its Calavo integration targets annualized cost synergies of more than US$30 million.
Related markets
Latest news
- MPLX Reports Earnings on Nov. 3, 2026. Here's What Investors Should Be Watching.
MPLX will report third-quarter results on Tuesday, Nov. 3, after management said the third quarter should be stronger than the second, and the fourth stronger still. The MLP spent $5.5 billion on growth projects and acquisitions last year and plans $2.9 billion in growth capex in 2026, aiming for mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. First-half adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion, up less than 2% year over year, so the second half must accelerate. The article estimates third-quarter adjusted EBITDA near $1.85 billion, versus nearly $1.8 billion in the second quarter. The board declared a third-quarter distribution of $1.2111 per unit, up 12.5% year over year, making distribution coverage (1.3x at the end of the second quarter) and leverage (3.7x, versus a 4.0x target) key metrics to watch.
- Learn Why The Bull Case For JPMorgan Chase Stock Could Change Following Earnings Miss
JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter earnings below expectations for the first time since 2023, while raising its 2026 net interest income outlook to about US$106.2 billion. The bank is cutting share buybacks and raising its dividend, directing capital toward technology, AI and franchise investment and accepting higher noninterest expenses rather than maximizing near-term payouts. It is also issuing multiple callable senior unsecured notes maturing between 2031 and 2056, with coupons mostly in the 5.5% to 6.7% range, signaling a focus on balance sheet flexibility and long-dated funding. The article notes that a weaker credit or capital markets environment combined with elevated spending could squeeze margins and returns. Consensus figures project revenue of US$227.1 billion and earnings of US$68.8 billion by 2029, based on an assumed 6.8% annual revenue growth rate, an increase of about US$5.2 billion from current earnings of US$63.6 billion.
- Barclays Says a SpaceX Merger Is Now "a Key Part" of the Tesla Bull Case. Here's Who Actually Wins if It Happens -- and Who Pays.
On Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX) third-quarter conference call, CEO Elon Musk said he thought a merger with Tesla was a good idea, and the two companies have each formed a special committee to explore a combination. Barclays says such a deal would likely be funded largely or entirely through stock, and Tesla shareholders could benefit given SpaceX's market capitalization of roughly $2 trillion compared with roughly $1.55 trillion for Tesla. Barclays upgraded Tesla from equal weight to overweight and raised its one-year price target from $370 to $450 per share, a level that matches its expected all-stock buyout value, a premium of roughly 20% over the current price, or about 3.1 SpaceX shares per Tesla share. The deal would need a 50% affirmative vote from Tesla shareholders, with investors who do not vote counted as "no" votes, and Musk controls about 20% of voting power but would still likely need meaningful retail investor support. The article also notes that heavy dilution from new SpaceX share issuance to fund a deal makes the post-deal outlook for SpaceX stock harder to predict.
- Centerra Gold Inc (CGAU) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Buybacks, Lower Mount ...
Centerra Gold reported third-quarter adjusted net earnings of $72 million, or $0.37 per share, with operating cash flow of $143 million and free cash flow of $17 million. The company bought back a record $53 million of shares in the quarter, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $125 million, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share. Mount Milligan's third-quarter all-in sustaining cost on a byproduct basis was $985 per ounce, and full-year guidance was lowered to $1,100–$1,200 per ounce from $1,200–$1,300, supported by copper by-product credits. The Thompson Creek restart is about 75% complete with first molybdenum production expected in mid-2027, though molybdenum prices cannot be hedged and Mount Milligan costs are tracking about 5% above budget. Cash fell roughly $50 million in the quarter, and the company plans to hold only $100–$200 million in cash, with total liquidity of $998 million.
- Prediction: Nvidia Stock Is Going to Soar After Nov. 17
Nvidia's market capitalization tops $5 trillion, and its stock is up nearly 15% in 2026. Revenue in the fiscal 2027 second quarter reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, with a 75% non-GAAP gross margin. The company forecasts about $108 billion in third-quarter revenue, while analysts expect about $109 billion. CEO Jensen Huang sees global AI infrastructure spending reaching $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, and the Vera Rubin platform could generate $40 billion per gigawatt, 60% more than Blackwell. Nvidia trades at about 23 times forward earnings versus 18.6 for the S&P 500, which the author considers reasonable given its growth; the company reports on Nov. 17.
- Intuitive Surgical Stock Just Fell Despite a 22% Revenue Jump. Here's What Investors Are Missing.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) shares fell after the company reported earnings, despite a 22% jump in revenue. The article argues the real revenue driver is not da Vinci robot sales, which account for roughly 25% of revenue, but instruments, accessories, and services. Although Medtronic and Johnson & Johnson have entered surgical robotics, Intuitive sold more da Vinci systems in Q3 2026 than in Q3 2025, and procedures rose 15% while installed systems grew 12% year over year. With more than 12,000 installed systems generating recurring income, the article says the company still has room to grow as surgical robotics is far from saturation.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.