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Barclays Says a SpaceX Merger Is Now "a Key Part" of the Tesla Bull Case. Here's Who Actually Wins if It Happens -- and Who Pays.

On Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX) third-quarter conference call, CEO Elon Musk said he thought a merger with Tesla was a good idea, and the two companies have each formed a special committee to explore a combination. Barclays says such a deal would likely be funded largely or entirely through stock, and Tesla shareholders could benefit given SpaceX's market capitalization of roughly $2 trillion compared with roughly $1.55 trillion for Tesla. Barclays upgraded Tesla from equal weight to overweight and raised its one-year price target from $370 to $450 per share, a level that matches its expected all-stock buyout value, a premium of roughly 20% over the current price, or about 3.1 SpaceX shares per Tesla share. The deal would need a 50% affirmative vote from Tesla shareholders, with investors who do not vote counted as "no" votes, and Musk controls about 20% of voting power but would still likely need meaningful retail investor support. The article also notes that heavy dilution from new SpaceX share issuance to fund a deal makes the post-deal outlook for SpaceX stock harder to predict.

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