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- EMEA Morning Briefing : Fed Warsh Avoids Signal on October Rate Move
At the IMF meetings in Bangkok, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to endorse or push back on officials' signals that they are in no rush to raise rates this month, saying the Fed no longer previews its decisions. Oil fell in Asia after the IEA said emergency stock releases by member countries would exceed the 400 million barrels agreed in March, with about 100 million barrels still to be released. Commonwealth Bank analysts warned that further EU trade restrictions on China could spark a trade war that weighs on the euro, while Renaissance Macro's Jeff deGraaf tied the flight to Treasuries to weakness in the AI trade. Alcoa's CEO said aluminum prices have moderated but remain supported, with global inventories at about 42 days of consumption. Iron ore recently traded below $90 a ton for the first time since 2024 as fundamentals weaken.
- IMF outlook : The global economy may not be doing as badly as feared but it laden with major risks
The IMF's latest forecasts show the global economy holding up better than feared despite the Iran war, higher interest rates and an AI-driven investment boom. Global growth is projected to rise to 3.4% in 2027 from an estimated 3.1% this year, with the US doing somewhat better than forecast and China unchanged at 4%. The article warns of risks including high energy prices, extreme weather, excess spending on data-centre technology and budgets in several advanced economies that are close to exhaustion, with France facing dimmer prospects amid a bond selloff. It argues that the burden of responding to any future downturn will ultimately fall on central banks, and quotes Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who said the bond market pressure gives leaders a chance to put their finances in order.
- Al - Jadaan Global Economy Warning : Wars Raise Risks
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, speaking as Chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), warned that wars, conflicts and supply chain disruptions are raising human and economic costs worldwide. He said these developments are intensifying price pressures, hitting the poorest and most vulnerable economies hardest because they are least equipped to cope with inflation and external shocks. At the 54th IMFC meeting in Bangkok, he stressed strengthening economic and financial stability and called for stepped-up international cooperation and an end to conflicts, which he said sustainable growth depends on. The article notes growing concern that unresolved geopolitical tensions could undermine global economic recovery.
- Leaders weigh 'huge benefit,' risks of AI for global economy
Leaders at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok said the AI boom is a major driver of global growth but could pose economic risks if investment falters. The IMF said AI spending helped cushion the shock from higher energy prices caused by the Middle East war, and that global trade rose 8.3% over 2023–2025, versus about 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the 'most consequential change' of his lifetime but warned the path ahead would be 'bumpy'. An IMF report projected that a decline in AI investment could reduce global GDP by 0.4% by 2028, while Moody's Analytics warned a prolonged conflict could 'puncture' the boom. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva added that without safeguards, 'the risks may exceed the opportunities'.
- Leaders weigh huge benefit, risks of AI for global economy
At the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, policymakers said the AI boom is both a key driver of global growth and a source of risk if investment in the technology falters. The IMF said AI helped cushion the shock from higher energy prices caused by the Middle East war, with global trade rising 8.3% over 2023–2025, a figure that would be closer to 4.6% without AI-related products. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh called AI the “most consequential change” to the global economy in his lifetime, but warned the path ahead would be “bumpy.” An IMF report projected that a drop in AI investment could cut global GDP by 0.4% by 2028, while Moody’s Analytics warned a prolonged conflict could “puncture” the boom. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said that without safeguards, “the risks may exceed the opportunities.”
- Saudi inflation remains stable at 1.9% in September despite global shipping risks
Saudi Arabia's annual consumer price inflation held at 1.9% in September 2026 and was unchanged month-on-month, according to GASTAT, even as tensions along maritime routes could push up shipping costs and disrupt supply chains. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 3.6% year-on-year and contributed the most (0.7 percentage points), followed by transportation at 2.3% and food and beverages at 1.4%. The Wholesale Price Index rose 4.2% year-on-year, led by a 26.1% jump in basic chemical prices, but fell 0.2% from August, mainly due to a 0.9% drop in refined petroleum products and fuels.
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- Saudi Arabia postpones big investor conference to 2027 as Iran-backed Houthis escalate attacks on kingdom
Saudi Arabia has postponed its major annual investor conference until 2027 as Iran-backed Houthi militants escalate missile and drone attacks on the kingdom. The Future Investment Initiative had been scheduled for Riyadh from October 26 to 29. The decision follows a Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on October 10, which left at least 12 people dead and more than 300 injured. Organizers said in an email that new dates will be announced soon.
- Russia fires mysterious weapon at Kyiv, shockwaves spread; President Putin appears in rare image, drawing global attention
On the night of 18 Oct, Russia launched a coordinated strike on multiple Ukrainian targets using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Geran UAVs, focused on Kyiv. According to TST, around 10 ballistic missiles of the Iskander-M, S-400 or KN-23 types may have been used in the first wave; an above-ground metro station on Kyiv's left bank was reported damaged, disrupting rail and metro services, and videos of blue flashes led observers to suspect a new weapon. In western Ukraine, a 330 kV transformer station near Kovel may have been targeted. Meanwhile, Putin, who rarely appears in military uniform, visited a command post and stressed establishing a “security zone” along the border; blogger Yuri Podolyaka argued Moscow no longer treats these areas as bargaining chips. Front-line correspondent Alexander Kots said the part of Donetsk still controlled by Ukraine is just over 2,700 km².
- Semiconductor Sell-Off: 5 Stocks to Buy on the Dip
The article attributes the semiconductor selloff to investor doubts about the durability of AI infrastructure spending, even as cloud companies report strong demand for AI chips. It highlights five stocks: Nvidia (forward P/E just above 13.5 on fiscal 2028 estimates), Broadcom (custom AI chips, with that revenue expected to quadruple to $230 billion over two years; forward P/E of 11), AMD (riding inference and agentic AI demand), Cerebras Systems (high risk-reward; the company claims 30 times the inference speed of GPUs) and TSMC (forward P/E of 18 on 2027 estimates).
- Tom Lee’s Bitmine Adds $30 Million in Ethereum as Buying Nears Its Finish Line
Bitmine bought another 12,535 ETH (about $30 million), lifting its holdings to 6,041,481 ETH, or 4.9% of supply and 99% of its 5% target. Chairman Tom Lee blamed the crypto selloff on a broad risk-off shift, including AI funding and safety worries, U.S.-Iran tensions, midterm jitters and rising bond yields, and called the dip a historically attractive risk-reward entry. Total holdings reached $15.1 billion as of Oct. 18, including 215 Bitcoin, $582 million in cash and marketable securities, and other investments. About 84% of its ETH (5,067,309 tokens) is staked via its MAVAN platform, with projected annualized revenue of roughly $309 million. The position is currently underwater on paper because much of it was bought at higher prices.
- Opinion: The Most Important Number in Taiwan Semiconductor's Earnings Report Was 68%
The author argues the most important figure in TSMC's Q3 report is 68%, the share of revenue from high-performance computing (HPC), which grew 22% from the prior quarter. Revenue reached $46.72 billion, up 41.2% year over year, net income rose 68.7%, and gross margin hit 66.4%. Processes at 7nm and below made up 79% of wafer revenue, with 3nm at 33% and 2nm at 8%. TSMC guided Q4 revenue to $52.3–54.3 billion and expects roughly 44% full-year growth in U.S. dollars. The author remains bullish, saying ongoing demand for advanced AI chips should keep profits rising.
- Why Meta's Q3 earnings could be a little hard to interpret
Meta is reporting its third-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday, and Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi says the report will be hard to interpret. Recent good news on Meta's AI products, including new models and an AI agent, may not appear directly in the results but will likely be discussed on the earnings call. The key uncertainty is how investors will react if Meta raises its capex outlook again: it could be seen as fueling those products, or as overspending on offerings not yet reflected in financials. Sozzi expects the market to give Meta the benefit of the doubt on higher capex, as long as the increase does not shock investors.
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