The IMF's latest forecasts show the global economy holding up better than feared despite the Iran war, higher interest rates and an AI-driven investment boom. Global growth is projected to rise to 3.4% in 2027 from an estimated 3.1% this year, with the US doing somewhat better than forecast and China unchanged at 4%. The article warns of risks including high energy prices, extreme weather, excess spending on data-centre technology and budgets in several advanced economies that are close to exhaustion, with France facing dimmer prospects amid a bond selloff. It argues that the burden of responding to any future downturn will ultimately fall on central banks, and quotes Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who said the bond market pressure gives leaders a chance to put their finances in order.
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French assets fell early Monday as social unrest, political instability and rising national debt weighed on markets: the 10-year bond yield jumped 7 basis points, near its highest level in decades, the euro slipped 0.15% against the U.S. dollar, and the CAC 40 fell nearly 1%. The OAT-Bund spread hit its highest level since the early 2010s debt crisis, and French yields now exceed those of Italy and Greece. Weekend protests over living costs and public services turned violent in several cities, with more than 2,000 arrests. Investors are also uneasy about next year's presidential election, where far-right Marine Le Pen leads many polls, and whether Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority government can pass the 2027 budget. Goldman Sachs' Sharon Bell said the deficit will be hard to reduce without painful measures, though she sees no need for emergency ECB intervention.
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