Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, argues the bitcoin bear market ended in June, when prices bottomed below $58,000, and that bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase like those before past rallies. He cites a recovery above the 50-week moving average after 44 weeks below it, along with five straight weekly closes above that level. Net long exposure from asset managers through CME bitcoin futures has fallen 57% from the record-high week, while spot bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC after the June low. Bitcoin traded near $80,000, about 35% below its record high of over $126,000. Galaxy warns that a weekly close below $76,540 without recovery within a month would challenge its technical outlook.
Summary written by Upside AI from the original article. Read the source for full details.
Read the original on CoinDesk ↗
Keywords
Open a keyword to see other news on the same topic.
Related tickers and likely impact
BTC/USDT
▲ Likely positiveBitcoin
Relevance: low
| Market | Crypto |
|---|---|
| Exchange | Binance |
| Sector | Layer 1 |
| Market cap | $1.6T |
| Close on 10/26/2026 | 80,150.56 |
| Change that session | 0.00% |
Impact is scored by AI from the headline and may be wrong. It is not investment advice.
Related news
- Bitcoin ETFs claw back $110M after $774M exit
US spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows of $110 million on Monday, after $774 million in outflows over the previous two trading sessions, according to SoSoValue. October remained negative, with about $202 million in net outflows through Monday. Bitcoin traded at $79,595 at publication, down 2.6% over the past seven days per CoinGecko, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 48 from 50, staying in 'Neutral' territory. CryptoQuant data showed retail deposits to Binance nearly doubled over 30 days to $10.8 billion, while deposits from large holders fell to $3.8 billion, and analyst Darkfost suggested smaller investors may be using the price rebound to sell.
- Do Bitcoin ETF Flows Really Predict Future Bitcoin Price Moves? This New Research Has Important Implications for BTC Investors.
A DWF Labs study finds Bitcoin ETF flows have limited predictive power because investors tend to chase performance, exiting after big declines and returning after big rallies. Price usually moves first, and the link between flows and price fades within a few days. Many spot ETF investors sell when Bitcoin drops only about 7%, and in five of eight major sell-offs, ETF selling intensified just days before a bottom. The largest fund, IBIT, with $68.7 billion in assets under management as of Oct. 23, reportedly carries no more signal than smaller rivals. The article concludes that investors should not put much stock in ETF flows.
- Could Hyperliquid (HYPE) Overtake Solana (SOL) in Market Value by 2030? Claude AI Puts a Number on It
The article says Bitcoin must rise about 58.8% from $79,401 to surpass its $126,080 record set on October 6, 2025, a move that implies a market value of about $2.53 trillion versus roughly $1.60 trillion today. The next halving is projected for 2028, after the April 2024 halving, when the peak came about 18 months later. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold $104.7 billion in net assets and have seen $57.2 billion in cumulative net inflows as of October 23, while Strategy Inc. (MSTR) holds 848,517 BTC. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.31% on October 5 to 4.96% on October 22, while the Fed's benchmark rate stayed at 4.00%. The article judges a new high before 2028 unlikely, with a more realistic range of $63,847 to $100,000, and a pessimistic case of a return to $63,847 if ETF outflows rise and the VIX stays above 20.
- Bitcoin Dips Below $80,000 Ahead of Fed Decision, Midterms
Bitcoin briefly fell below $80,000, touching about $79,330 before recovering to $80,264, down 2.7% on the week according to CoinGecko. The dip followed a sell-off in tech stocks and caution ahead of the Fed's rate decision, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing $773 million in net outflows on Thursday and Friday. Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com linked the pressure to persistent inflation, high Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed tightening, while Tim Sun of HashKey said outflows and unwinding leveraged positions amplified the decline. Tim Sun sees $75,000 as a key support level if prices fall further, while Stephen Wundke of Algoz says Bitcoin needs to hold $82,000 to support the bull case. Analysts expect volatility to stay elevated ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.
- Bitcoin's Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy'
Galaxy's Alex Thorn argues Bitcoin bottomed in June and is now in an accumulation phase, calling it 'an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin.' Bitcoin has closed five straight weeks above its 50-week average, and its market value never fell below its realized value, a first for any bear market. The latest 53% drawdown was the shallowest on record, versus 77% to 93% in past cycles, and spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low. Thorn also points to $40.44 trillion in federal debt and a 10-year Treasury yield that hit 5.31%, its highest since 2007. His warning sign is a weekly close below the 50-week average, currently $76,540, that isn't regained within a month.
- Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as oil retreats and the Fed decision looms
Bitcoin was near $80,400, little changed since midnight UTC after dipping to around $79,300 during the Asian morning. The DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to gain, after Arthur Hayes said his Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether, due to macro and geopolitical risk. U.S. crude fell around 2% to near $101 a barrel and Brent slipped to around $110 as Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran. The Fed, which raised rates in September, decides on Wednesday, with CME's FedWatch showing a 90% chance of no change. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $138 million of outflows on Friday, taking the two-day exit to $772 million.
Related markets
Latest news
- UPS beats quarterly expectations, raises full-year guidance again
UPS reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.69 per share, above the $1.63 expected, and revenue of $22.9 billion versus $22.29 billion expected. Net income was $1.16 billion, or $1.37 per share, down from $1.31 billion, or $1.55, a year earlier. The company raised its full-year consolidated revenue projection to about $92.6 billion from $91.2 billion and forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $25.7 billion. Domestic revenue rose 4.5%, international revenue 7.1%, and supply chain solutions 18.2%, driven mainly by forwarding and logistics, including healthcare. CEO Carol Tomé said UPS is entering the holiday shipping season 'from a position of strength' with the most automated and efficient network in its history.
- Ripple Wins Final OCC Approval for Trust Bank Behind $2.6B RLUSD Stablecoin
The OCC has granted Ripple final approval to open Ripple National Trust Bank, 10 months after conditionally approving the charter in December 2025. The bank will manage the reserves backing the RLUSD stablecoin, act as collateral trustee for holders, and offer fiduciary digital asset custody to enterprises. RLUSD will still be issued by Standard Custody & Trust Company, which is regulated by the New York DFS, so the stablecoin will fall under both state and federal supervision. The approval comes as community banks challenge the OCC's crypto charters in court, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren has called the charters illegal. According to CoinGecko, RLUSD has a market capitalization of about $2.6 billion.
- China’s AI Stock Rout Scary, but Crypto Punters Aren’t Calling a US Bubble Burst Yet
Crypto bettors see little near-term risk of an AI crash in the U.S., even as warning signs emerge from China. On Polymarket, the Polygon (POL)-based prediction market, the chance of an AI-industry bubble burst is priced at only 9%.
- JPMorgan Chase Says That Bitcoin Will Outperform Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Over the Next 10 Years. Here's Why It Might Be Right
A new report from the asset management arm of JPMorgan Chase projects that Bitcoin could return 10% annually over the next 10 years in its base case, versus 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.6% for broad U.S. bonds and 5.5% for gold. The projection rests on three drivers: Bitcoin's slowing supply growth relative to global money growth (65% weight), its inclusion in portfolios alongside scarce store-of-value assets such as gold (30%), and rising network activity. Under this model, the coin would be priced at about $211,130 by 2036, compared with $81,300 as of Oct. 26; the bear case calls for an 11.2% annual loss and the bull case a 16.6% annual gain. The bank expects volatility of 55% in all scenarios and describes Bitcoin as 'a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.' The article says these forecasts are conservative relative to Bitcoin's 63% 10-year compound annual growth rate but appear reasonable.
- Microsoft announces voluntary buyouts for 60,000 employees worldwide
Microsoft has announced a voluntary buyout programme for about 60,000 employees, more than a quarter of its global workforce, to manage expenses and support ongoing AI investments, according to Reuters. The offer applies to eligible staff in Canada, India, the UK and the US at level 70 and below, across divisions including AI experiences, finance, Copilot, human resources, Xbox and Windows + Devices, while marketing, commercial business and security are excluded. It follows an earlier buyout offer to around 9,000 US employees (7% of the American workforce) and 4,800 job cuts in July, about 2.1% of global headcount. The company has a reported forecast of $175bn in capital expenditures for calendar 2026, and it employed 223,000 full-time staff as of 30 June 2026.
- Zcash co-founder calls to stop funding 'over $125M' grants program
Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe has proposed ending the automatic funding stream to Zcash Community Grants (ZCG), saying the program already holds over $125M and that its treasury is large enough to keep funding projects without further automatic payments. A draft GitHub proposal would redirect ZCG's 8% share of the ZEC block subsidy to the network's sustainability reserve until the current funding period ends in 2028, leaving existing funds untouched. According to ZCG's dashboard, it held 91,453 ZEC and $8.8 million in cash, with $2.4 million in outstanding grant commitments, and the ZEC holdings alone were worth about $111 million at press time. Earlier, in September, Haseeb Qureshi of Dragonfly proposed ending the Zcash developer fund when its current funding period expires, warning that it risks being 'politicized' as it approaches $100 million in value.
Get the briefing on Telegram or Zalo
Join the Upside Telegram channel or Zalo group for the Vietnam stocks and gold briefing at 8:00 and 19:00 (Vietnam time) on trading days, plus a weekly wrap on Saturday morning.