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Nvidia vs. TSMC: Which Business Depends Less on Picking the Winning AI Chip?

The article compares how much Nvidia and TSMC depend on picking the winning AI-chip architecture. TSMC manufactures designs for competing customers, so demand for manufacturing could hold up if buyers shift toward custom accelerators, though this depends on where replacement chips are made. In its third quarter, TSMC reported 79% of wafer revenue from technologies at seven nanometers and below, and a 58.7% operating margin in its latest quarter. Nvidia's strength is its ecosystem and system integration, but data-center revenue made up about 92.5% of its $96.22 billion total, creating heavy exposure to infrastructure spending. The author argues that a diversified customer base does not remove TSMC's risks around factory location and Taiwan exposure.

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Market cap$5.2T
Close on 10/16/2026214.13
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